Fig. 2. Latent pedigree model connecting the princely graves of Hochdorf (HOC001) and Asperg (APG001).

a, We analyse several plausible pedigrees connecting the two individuals and compute a posterior probability (shown on the x axis) given priors from genetic, archaeological and anthropological evidence, including, for example, plausible ages for motherhood (Supplementary Note 3). Females are shown as circles and males as squares; HOC001 is shown in red and APG001 in blue. The labels on the x axis correspond to the tested models: (1) HOC001 is the uncle of APG001. (2) HOC001 is the maternal grandfather of APG001, which requires cryptic background relatedness on the mitochondrial lineage. MT, mitochondrial. (3) HOC001 and APG001 are double first cousins. (4) HOC001 is the paternal grandfather of APG001. (5) HOC001 and APG001 are half-siblings. (6) HOC001 is the father of APG001. (7) HOC001 and APG001 are full siblings. (8) APG001 is the uncle of HOC001. (9) APG001 is the father of HOC001. (10) APG001 is the maternal grandfather of HOC001. (11) APG001 is the paternal grandfather of HOC001. An avuncular relationship between the two individuals is the most likely scenario, with 86% posterior weight. b, Marginal posterior distributions obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for burial dates (unobserved but constrained by priors), birth dates as well as the birth date of their respective mother are shown as kernel-density smoothed histograms.