Table 3.
Test characteristics of point-of-care severity scores for predicting prognosis in patients admitted through the emergency department (ED) with COVID-19 using first vital signs collected within 24 hours of ED admission
| In-hospital Mortality | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sn (95% CI) | Sp (95% CI) | PPV (95% CI) | NPV (95% CI) | AUROC (95% CI) | |
| qSOFA ≥ 2 | 9.1% (8.6–9.5%) | 97.3% (97.2–97.4%) | 41.2% (39.5–42.8%) | 83.7% (83.5–84.0%) | 0.53 (0.53–0.53) |
| Shock Index > 0.7 | 48.0% (47.2–48.8%) | 55.5% (55.2–55.9%) | 18.3% (17.9–18.7%) | 83.7% (83.4–84.0%) | 0.52 (0.51–0.52) |
| NEWS2 ≥ 5 | 65.2% (64.4–65.9%) | 53.4% (53.0–53.7%) | 22.5% (22.1–22.9%) | 88.0% (87.7–88.3%) | 0.59 (0.59–0.60) |
| qCSI ≥ 4 | 48.0% (47.2–48.8%) | 64.6% (64.3–64.9%) | 22.0% (21.6–22.4%) | 85.7% (85.4–86.0%) | 0.56 (0.56–0.57) |
| Intensive Care Unit Admission | |||||
| Sn (95% CI) | Sp (95% CI) | PPV (95% CI) | NPV (95% CI) | AUROC (95% CI) | |
| qSOFA ≥ 2 | 7.2% (6.9–7.5%) | 97.6% (97.5–97.7%) | 54.5% (52.8–56.2%) | 72.5% (72.2–72.8%) | 0.52 (0.52–0.53) |
| Shock Index > 0.7 | 50.7% (50.1–51.4%) | 57.2% (56.8–57.6%) | 32.2% (31.7–32.6%) | 74.4% (74.0–74.8%) | 0.54 (0.54–0.54) |
| NEWS2 ≥ 5 | 64.4% (63.9–65.0%) | 56.0% (55.6–56.4%) | 36.9% (36.5–37.4%) | 79.8% (79.4–80.1%) | 0.60 (0.60–0.61) |
| qCSI ≥ 4 | 46.6% (46.0–47.2%) | 66.0% (65.7–66.4%) | 35.4% (34.9–35.9%) | 75.6% (75.2–75.9%) | 0.56 (0.56–0.57) |
| Need for Mechanical Ventilation | |||||
| Sn (95% CI) | Sp (95% CI) | PPV (95% CI) | NPV (95% CI) | AUROC (95% CI) | |
| qSOFA ≥ 2 | 8.9% (8.4–9.4%) | 97.0% (96.9–97.2%) | 32.4% (30.8–34.0%) | 87.0% (86.8–87.2%) | 0.53 (0.53–0.53) |
| Shock Index > 0.7 | 52.9% (52.0–53.7%) | 56.2% (55.8–56.5%) | 16.1% (15.8–16.5%) | 88.2% (87.9–88.5%) | 0.55 (0.54–0.55) |
| NEWS2 ≥ 5 | 69.5% (68.7–70.3%) | 53.3% (53.0–53.7%) | 19.2% (18.8–19.5%) | 91.7% (91.4–91.9%) | 0.61 (0.61–0.62) |
| qCSI ≥ 4 | 49.5% (48.6–50.4% | 64.3% (64.0–64.7%) | 18.1% (17.7–18.5%) | 88.9% (88.6–89.1%) | 0.57 (0.56–0.57) |
| Need for Vasopressors | |||||
| Sn (95% CI) | Sp (95% CI) | PPV (95% CI) | NPV (95% CI) | AUROC (95% CI) | |
| qSOFA ≥ 2 | 9.9% (9.4–10.5%) | 97.2% (97.1–97.3%) | 35.8% (34.1–37.4%) | 87.2% (87.0–87.5%) | 0.54 (0.53–0.54) |
| Shock Index > 0.7 | 52.6% (51.7–53.5%) | 56.1% (55.8–56.5%) | 15.9% (15.6–16.3%) | 88.2% (87.9–88.5%) | 0.54 (0.54–0.55) |
| NEWS2 ≥ 5 | 67.0% (66.2–67.9%) | 52.9% (52.5–53.2%) | 18.3% (18.0–18.7%) | 91.0% (90.8–91.3%) | 0.60 (0.60–0.60) |
| qCSI ≥ 4 | 48.9% (48.0–49.8%) | 64.2% (63.9–64.6%) | 17.8% (17.4–18.2%) | 88.8% (88.6–89.1%) | 0.57 (0.56–0.57) |
Sn: sensitivity; Sp: specificity; PPV: positive predictive value; NPV: negative predictive value; 95% CI: 95% confidence interval; highest values in each column appear in bold