Fig. 1 |. Roulette accounts for extended nucleotide context, strand asymmetries and local variation in mutation rate.

a, Roulette is implemented as logistic regression with pairwise interactions (Methods). For each pentamer, we model the effect of eight surrounding nucleotides (left), strand-specific information (middle) and context-specific variation along the genome (right). b, Ratio of observed de novo mutation rates between the Roulette predicted most and least mutable deciles for each pentamer shows a large variation unexplained by the pentamer context alone. c, Effect of transcriptional asymmetry on the rate of rare synonymous SNVs in the genes with high expression in testis (top quartile). Mutation rate is relative to the least mutable strand. Error bars correspond to 95% Poisson CI. d, Spike of the density of rare synonymous SNVs on the left arm of chromosome 8. This region is known to be affected by increased maternal mutagenesis^4,17,23,24.