Table 1.
Summary of key model estimates of (a) size of key populations in 2022 relative to the total sex-specific population, (b) HIV prevalence in 2012 and 2022, (c) coverage of ART in 2012 and 2022, and (d) fractions of sex acts across all partnerships modelled that involved condoms in 2022. Median and 90% UI (5th and 95th percentiles) of estimates are shown.
| Risk groups | Côte d’Ivoire | Mali | Senegal | |||
| (a) Relative population size in 2022 | ||||||
| FSW (% of all women) | 1.4% (0.9–1.9) | 0.6% (0.4–0.9) | 0.6% (0.5–0.8) | |||
| Clients of FSW (% of all men) | 13.9% (8.4–18.4) | 10.8% (5.1–18.1) | 4.2% (2.6–7.2) | |||
| MSM (% of all men) | 1.3% (0.9–1.6) | 0.4% (0.2–0.5) | 0.5% (0.3–0.9) | |||
| Key populationsa | 8.8% (5.4–11.3) | 5.8% (2.9–9.4) | 2.6% (1.8–4.2) | |||
| Non-key populations | 91.2% (88.7–94.6) | 94.2% (90.6–97.1) | 97.4% (95.8–98.2) | |||
| (b) HIV prevalence | ||||||
| 2012 | 2022 | 2012 | 2022 | 2012 | 2022 | |
| All | 3.4% (2.9–4) | 2.1% (1.7–2.5) | 1% (0.7–1.2) | 0.6% (0.4–0.8) | 0.5% (0.4–0.5) | 0.3% (0.3–0.4) |
| FSW | 12% (9–16) | 8% (6–11) | 15% (13–19) | 8% (7–11) | 7% (5–11) | 4% (2–6) |
| Clients of FSW | 4% (3–6) | 2% (2–4) | 4% (2–6) | 2% (1–3) | 3% (2–5) | 2% (1–3) |
| MSM | 15% (10–21) | 7% (5–11) | 22% (17–27) | 13% (9–16) | 19% (14–26) | 22% (15–28) |
| Key populationsa | 6% (4–8) | 3% (2–4) | 5% (3–8) | 3% (2–4) | 5% (3–8) | 4% (2–6) |
| Non-key populations | 3.4% (2.9–4.0) | 2.1% (1.7–2.5) | 1% (0.7–1.2) | 0.6% (0.4–0.8) | 0.5% (0.4–0.5) | 0.3% (0.3–0.4) |
| (c) ART coverage among people with HIV | ||||||
| 2012 | 2022 | 2012 | 2022 | 2012 | 2022 | |
| All | 39% (35–42) | 67% (64–69) | 27% (25–31) | 46% (43–51) | 51% (46–55) | 68% (63–71) |
| FSW | 38% (31–44) | 64% (57–75) | 40% (32–55) | 49% (37–63) | 30% (23–37) | 50% (41–59) |
| Clients of FSW | 35% (31–42) | 56% (52–61) | 26% (20–33) | 38% (32–46) | 49% (37–58) | 70% (61–77) |
| MSM | 26% (18–36) | 52% (40–60) | 47% (36–55) | 56% (44–67) | 20% (13–24) | 28% (20–36) |
| Key populationsa | 34% (29–40) | 57% (53–61) | 31% (27–37) | 44% (38–51) | 35% (29–40) | 45% (37–51) |
| Non-key populations | 40% (36–43) | 68% (66–70) | 26% (23–29) | 47% (44–52) | 58% (52–63) | 78% (75–82) |
| (d) Fraction of sex acts involving condom use in 2022 | ||||||
| Partnerships between non-key populationsb | 16% (9–24) | 3% (1–5) | 1% (1–2) | |||
| During sex workc | 75% (63–88) | 82% (69–96) | 78% (64–90) | |||
| During sex between menc | 74% (68–81) | 76% (70–81) | 77% (71–83) | |||
ART, antiretroviral therapy; FSW, female sex workers.
a
Key populations, female sex workers, their clients (‘clients’), and MSM combined.
b
Here, shown for the case where both partners are aged between 25 and 49 years old.
c
Condom use during sex between MSM and their female partners and between clients and their non-FSW partners are assumed to be similar than between non-key population partners.