Table 2.
Impact of condom use and ART uptake on HIV outcomes over 2012–2021. Estimated fractions of (a) new HIV infections and (b) HIV-related deaths over 2012–2021 averted by the intervention used by all or by specific risk groups (with all their partners for condoms). Median and 90% UI (5th and 95th percentiles) of estimates are shown.
| Averted fractions by condom use | Averted fractions by ART | Averted fractions by condom use and ART | |||||||
| Risk groups | Côte d’Ivoire | Mali | Senegal | Côte d’Ivoire | Mali | Senegal | Côte d’Ivoire | Mali | Senegal |
| (a) New HIV infections over 2012–2021 | |||||||||
| All | 74% (65–82) | 75% (66–85) | 82% (74–87) | 45% (39–50) | 27% (22–34) | 48% (43–54) | 82% (78–87) | 81% (74–89) | 88% (83–91) |
| FSW | 71% (61–80) | 74% (64–84) | 79% (68–86) | 3% (1–7) | 8% (5–13) | 7% (3–12) | 74% (64–83) | 78% (69–87) | 82% (73–87) |
| Clients | 72% (62–81) | 75% (64–84) | 79% (69–86) | 7% (4–12) | 9% (5–14) | 20% (13–28) | 75% (64–83) | 76% (67–85) | 83% (75–88) |
| MSM | 10% (6–17) | 15% (9–23) | 43% (29–54) | 2% (0.7–3) | 4% (2–7) | 10% (6–16) | 15% (9–23) | 21% (12–30) | 47% (32–58) |
| KP | 73% (63–82) | 75% (66–85) | 82% (74–87) | 11% (7–18) | 19% (13–26) | 32% (25–40) | 78% (69–85) | 81% (72–88) | 87% (82–90) |
| Non-KP | 14% (11–18) | 1% (0.9–2) | 0.7% (0.5–1) | 40% (32–46) | 12% (9–19) | 29% (19–38) | 49% (42–54) | 14% (10–20) | 30% (20–39) |
| (b) New HIV deaths over 2012–2021 | |||||||||
| All | 22% (14–33) | 19% (13–32) | 30% (19–44) | 40% (31–48) | 29% (21–37) | 48% (35–55) | 55% (46–62) | 45% (37–53) | 64% (54–71) |
| FSW | 19% (12–31) | 18% (12–31) | 22% (12–38) | 2% (0.9–3) | 3% (2–4) | 4% (2–6) | 23% (15–34) | 23% (17–36) | 28% (18–44) |
| Clients | 20% (12–32) | 18% (12–31) | 22% (12–38) | 5% (3–8) | 6% (4–11) | 11% (6–17) | 27% (19–39) | 25% (18–37) | 35% (25–50) |
| MSM | 1% (0.7–3) | 2% (0.8–3) | 12% (7–20) | 1% (0.6–3) | 2% (1–4) | 6% (3–11) | 3% (2–7) | 5% (3–7) | 19% (12–30) |
| KP | 21% (13–32) | 19% (13–32) | 30% (19–44) | 8% (4–12) | 11% (8–17) | 20% (11–26) | 33% (24–45) | 32% (26–43) | 50% (38–59) |
| Non-KP | 2% (1–3) | 0.2% (0.1–0.3) | 0.1% (0.1–0.1) | 38% (28–45) | 22% (14–30) | 38% (28–47) | 39% (30–47) | 22% (14–30) | 38% (28–47) |
ART, antiretroviral therapy; Clients, clients of female sex workers; FSW, female sex workers; KP, key populations: FSW, their clients, and MSM combined; MSM, men who have sex with men.