Table 2.

The mean and 95% credible intervals (brackets) of simulated outcomes.

Outcome	Estimate [95% interval]
	No surveillance	Universal US + AFP surveillance	Risk-stratified surveillance	Precision surveillance
Lifetime prevalence of HCC	20.8% [20.7%–20.9%]	20.8% [20.6%–20.9%]	20.8% [20.6%–20.9%]	20.7% [20.6%–20.9%]
Total number of surveillance tests per 100,000 population	–	1,899,075 [1,894,575–1,903,574]	1,404,947 [1,400,556–1,409,337]	1,697,193 [1,692,703–1,701,682]
Number of HCC cases detected per 100,000 population	11,650 [11,480–11,820]	17,387 [17,141–17,633]	16,859 [16,607–17,110]	17,403 [17,158–17,649]
Mode of detection, %
Incidental detection	100.0%	18.5%	23.8%	18.7%
Surveillance detection	0.0%	81.5%	76.2%	81.3%
Stage at diagnosis, N (%)
Stage A	4434 (38.0%)	10,972 (63.2%)	10,752 (63.8%)	11,754 (67.6%)
Stage B	4355 (37.4%)	5573 (32.0%)	5073 (30.0%)	4805 (27.6%)
Stage C	2699 (23.2%)	772 (4.4%)	953 (5.6%)	773 (4.4%)
Stage D	161 (1.4%)	70 (0.4%)	80 (0.4%)	71 (0.4%)
Risk group, N (%)
Low-risk
Early stage (stage A)	508 (37.2%)	1319 (63.6%)	508 (37.2%)	1046 (58.6%)
Late stages (stages B-D)	856 (62.8%)	756 (36.4%)	856 (62.8%)	739 (41.4%)
Intermediate-risk
Early stage (stage A)	2203 (38.2%)	5428 (63.2%)	5428 (63.2%)	5885 (67.5%)
Late stages (stages B-D)	3571 (61.8%)	3157 (36.8%)	3157 (36.8%)	2835 (32.5%)
High-risk
Early stage (stage A)	1723 (38.2%)	4225 (62.8%)	4816 (69.7%)	4824 (69.9%)
Late stages (stages B-D)	2789 (61.8%)	2502 (37.2%)	2094 (30.3%)	2075 (30.1%)
Surveillance efficiency, number of surveillance-detectedcases per 1000 surveillance tests	–	7.46	9.14	8.34
Low-risk	–	3.44	–	3.52
Intermediate-risk	–	6.42	6.42	6.69
High-risk	–	17.12	18.40	18.33

AFP, alpha fetoprotein; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; US, ultrasound.