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. 2024 Sep 11;15:7954. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-52348-9

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© This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply 2024

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 4 — The curves show vaccine efficacy among SARS-CoV-2 naive participants (a, N = 1615; b, c, N = 2464). a The solid curve graphs two-dose vs. placebo vaccine efficacy against Ancestral COVID-19 by D57 (28 days post dose 2) Ancestral strain neutralizing antibody (nAb) titer in International Units (IU50/ml). The blue histogram shows the distribution of post dose 2 Ancestral nAb titer. The light blue shading indicates the middle 90% (5th percentile to 95th percentile) of the marker distribution. b The solid curve graphs three-dose vs. two-dose booster relative efficacy against Omicron COVID-19 by BD29 (28 days post dose 3) BA.1 nAb titer in imputed IU50/ml (see Methods). In (a) and (b), solid lines are point estimates and dashed lines are 95% confidence intervals. c The two dashed lines are the most and least conservative estimates of extrapolated booster vaccine efficacy against Omicron (BA.1) COVID-19 by BD29 (28 days post dose 3) BA.1 nAb titer in imputed IU50/ml for a 3-dose group vs an unvaccinated group. The curves are based on inferring an unvaccinated group using observational cohort data reported in eTable 2 in ref. ²³, namely that by 13 months post dose 2, VE (versus an unvaccinated control) against infection and hospitalization waned to 34% and 62%, respectively. In (b) and (c), the green histogram shows the distribution of post dose 3 BA.1 nAb titer. The light green shadings indicate the middle 90% (5th percentile to 95th percentile) of the marker distribution.