HIV incidence over time among MSM in central and western Africa (A), eastern and southern Africa (B), and the estimated incidence of HIV among MSM (C) in 2020, by country, estimated using a Bayesian Poisson generalised linear mixed-effects model, with study-level, country-level, and region-level random effects. Points represent available study observations and their 95% CIs, coloured by country in which the study was conducted. The solid lines and shaded areas represent the estimated population-weighted region-level HIV incidence and 95% CrI, respectively, estimated using only countries with available data (see appendix 2 p 76 for individual country-level time trends and 95% CrI). MSM=men who have sex with men. CrI=credible interval.