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. 2023 Jun 15;36(5):536–545. doi: 10.1080/08995605.2023.2222631

Grit and uncertainty: Grit predicts performance and West Point graduation during pandemic conditions

Elizabeth L Wetzler 1,✉, Andrew G Farina 1, Jeremiah Powers 1, Michael D Matthews 1
PMCID: PMC11407409  PMID: 37318312

ABSTRACT

Grit, or the passionate pursuit of long-term goals, is an important predictor of performance and success across various domains, including within some military contexts. Whether grit predicts such outcomes at a military service academy during a multi-year period of prolonged uncertainty, however, is unknown. Using institutional data collected prior to the COVID-19 pandemic onset, we assessed how well grit, physical fitness test scores, and entrance examination scores predicted performance in academic, military, and physical domains, as well as on-time graduation for 817 cadets from the West Point Class of 2022. This cohort spent more than 2 years of their time at West Point functioning under the uncertainty of pandemic-related conditions. Multiple regression results showed that grit, fitness test, and entrance examination scores were all significant predictors of performance outcomes in the academic, military, and physical domains. Results from binary logistic regression showed that, in addition to physical fitness, grit scores significantly predicted graduation from West Point and accounted for unique variance. Consistent with results from pre-pandemic studies, grit was an important predictor of performance and success for West Point cadets even under pandemic conditions.

KEYWORDS: Grit, military, pandemic, retention, uncertainty

What is the public significance of this article?—Results from studies conducted prior to the COVID-19 pandemic showed that grit, which is a passionate pursuit of long-term goals, predicted both performance and graduation from the United States Military Academy at West Point. No studies have yet evaluated whether the same would be true for a cadet cohort who spent more than 2 years at West Point during the pandemic. Consistent with pre-pandemic studies, results from the current study showed grit to be an important predictor of performance in academic, military, and physical domains, as well as successful graduation from West Point even during the pandemic. These findings contribute to our understanding of the importance of grit for navigating adverse circumstances that involve prolonged uncertainty, which may also be applicable to student groups in medical or law school programs or personnel, such as medical professionals, first responders, or social workers.

Grit, which is defined as the passionate pursuit of long-term goals (Duckworth et al., 2007), is an important predictor of outcomes across a variety of domains, to include academic performance at Ivy League universities (Duckworth et al., 2007) and retention in schools and the workplace (Eskreis-Winkler et al., 2014). Important for this study, grit also predicts success and retention in some military contexts (Duckworth et al., 2019; Eskreis-Winkler et al., 2014; Farina et al., 2019), although not in others (cf. Benedict et al., 2022; Dijksma et al., 2022). For example, higher grit scores predict whether West Point cadets complete cadet basic training during the summer prior to their first academic year, as well as graduation from West Point 4 years later (Duckworth et al., 2007, 2019). Whereas Benedict et al. (2022) did not find evidence that grit predicted graduation from U.S. Army Ranger School, both Farina et al. (2019) and Eskreis-Winkler et al. (2014) found that grit predicted completion of the U.S. Army Special Forces Assessment and Selection course (SFAS).

Other variables conceptually related to grit, such as hardiness and resilience, also predict military performance and retention outcomes (e.g., Bartone et al., 2008; Farina et al., 2019; Kelly et al., 2014; Maddi et al., 2017, 2012). Hardness is generally recognized as a personality trait that involves a strong sense of commitment to and engagement in work and life, being open to challenges and growing from them, and having a sense of agency or internal locus of control (Bartone et al., 2008; Kobasa, 1979). Resilience can be defined as being able to respond in an adaptive manner to stressors or adverse circumstances (Britt et al., 2013). Results from studies using military samples that investigated grit, hardiness, and resilience together show them to be distinct but significantly correlated (Georgoulas-Sherry & Kelly, 2019; Ledford et al., 2021). While all three attributes would be beneficial characteristics for military personnel given the nature of their work, grit is especially salient and focuses on the pursuit of a goal that may take months or even years to attain.

Results from prior research focused on West Point cadet performance in the academic, military, and physical domains while at the service academy showed that grit reliably predicts some variance in outcomes (Duckworth et al., 2019). However, grit is neither the only nor the best predictor of performance in these domains. In their pre-pandemic study of over 10,000 West Point cadets from nine cohorts, Duckworth et al. found that cognitive ability, as measured by entrance examination scores, was the best predictor of academic and military performance scores, whereas physical ability, as measured by pre-admission fitness assessment scores, was the best predictor of performance in the physical domain. Although grit was a significant predictor of performance in all three domains, it accounted for the least variance in the military and physical domains, and it accounted for a similar amount of variance as physical ability did in the academic domain. In other words, the study results showed grit to be just one of several reliable predictors of performance. On the other hand, when predicting successful graduation from West Point, Duckworth et al. found that both grit and physical ability were better predictors of success than entrance examination scores.

Additionally, recent meta-analytic studies have shown that the relationship between grit and academic performance is significant but small and that the perseverance of effort component appears to make a stronger contribution to the relationship than does the consistency of interests, or passion, component (Credé et al., 2017; Lam & Zhou, 2019). Credé (2018) also questions the psychometric properties of grit measurement scales and suggests that, given the strong correlation and conceptual relatedness between grit and conscientiousness, the two variables may be the same construct labeled with different names. In a recent review of grit research, Datu (2021) also questioned the predictive validity of grit above and beyond conscientiousness and self-control. Duckworth et al. (2021) acknowledge challenges with psychometric properties of the scale, including confounding of valence and directionality in wording (i.e., all perseverance of effort items being positively scored and all consistency of interest items being reverse scored). Moreover, they agree with the need to clarify how grit fits within the taxonomy of the Big Five personality traits, which includes conscientiousness.

These shortcomings and concerns notwithstanding, little is known about how grit or grit-related variables might predict militarily relevant outcomes during the prolonged period of uncertainty associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. To our knowledge, no published studies to date have focused specifically on this topic, although one study on grit and retention of Marine recruits in the Netherlands (Dijksma et al., 2022) appears to have included a portion of data collected after the pandemic onset. In their study of grit and dropout rates among 270 male recruits from three platoon cohorts whose courses ranged from 35 to 42 weeks, Dijksma et al. (2022) found no evidence that grit predicted attrition. While range restriction in grit scores may have contributed to the null results, the timing of their data collection is noteworthy; they reported collecting data from January 2019 through early June 2020, which was several months after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. Unfortunately, the authors did not report results from pre- versus post-pandemic onset cohort comparisons or whether more than one cohort was affected, so any potential impact of the pandemic remains unknown.

Understanding how the recent pandemic may have affected militarily relevant outcomes is essential given that all branches must maintain mission-capable fighting forces, regardless of circumstances. As evidenced during World War I, disease outbreaks such as the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic can have dire consequences for military personnel and civilians alike (Shanks, 2014). The total death toll attributable to the flu pandemic during World War I was estimated to be as high as 50 million people, far outnumbering the death toll from the war itself (Taubenberger & Morens, 2006). In addition, research indicates that grit may offer some protective, albeit indirect, physical health benefits by affecting health-care management skills (Sharkey et al., 2017). Recent research has also shown that people with higher grit levels engaged in more physical activity and exhibited better dietary habits during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic (de Zepetnek et al., 2021). Plausibly, grit might help keep personnel fit and ready in the face of adverse circumstances that involve infectious diseases.

Having military personnel with sufficient grit to prevail and accomplish their long-term goals in the face of an infectious disease may also have benefits beyond mission readiness. Mobilization of military personnel and resources during an outbreak may prevent it from worsening, such as when U.S. military forces deployed to Liberia in 2014 in support of Operation United Assistance (OUA) to fight the Ebola epidemic. Facing a frightening disease outbreak with a fatality rate of approximately 40% (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, n.d.), OUA personnel provided engineering and logistical support, deployed mobile labs to facilitate rapid testing for the virus, and provided medical training assistance for recognizing symptoms and properly donning personal protective equipment (Williams et al., 2015). Although there were more than 28,000 cases during the outbreak and more than 11,000 fatalities, the disease was widespread in only three countries, all of which were declared Ebola-free by June 2016 (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, n.d.).

Of particular interest is that the OUA efforts in West Africa were led during the first 40 days by (then) Major General Darryl A. Williams of the U.S. Army, who would go on to serve as the 60th Superintendent of the United States Military Academy (USMA) from 2018 to 2022. In response to the threat of COVID-19 at West Point in March 2020 and at the direction of then Superintendent, Lieutenant General Williams, a crisis action planning team operationalized USMA’s COVID-19 response plan, dubbed Operation Resilient Knight (ORK). Importantly, the planners framed the danger of the virus in more familiar military terms of representing an enemy threat. In his written forward to an After Action Report (Center for Army Lessons Learned, 2020), Williams indicated that maintaining the health and safety of the West Point community during the early months of ORK was his top priority but that he was also balancing public health concerns with risks to USMA's mission of developing, graduating, and commissioning leaders of character. That West Point’s senior leader had direct and recent experience in responding to an infectious disease outbreak was highly fortunate. The fact that the response plan title included the word “resilient” suggests that Williams and the planners may have anticipated the importance of cadets’ resilience-related strengths, such as grit, for successfully and safely navigating the COVID-19 pandemic situation.

The current study was designed to evaluate whether grit would predict performance and successful graduation from West Point for cadets in the graduating class of 2022, who spent slightly more than half of their 4 years at the academy functioning under the uncertainty of pandemic conditions. Even before the pandemic, accepting an offer of admission to a service academy meant accepting some uncertainties regarding military and physical training demands, academic workload, and the social dynamics of Military Academy life. The addition of the multi-year global pandemic brought even more uncertainties. Arguably, the Class of 2022 cohort was exposed to conditions that parallel, at least to some extent, those they might encounter as future Army officers. For example, the ongoing pandemic meets the definition of a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) situation (Dima et al., 2021; Murugan et al., 2020), and the Army prioritizes developing strategic leaders who can succeed in complex and ill-defined situations (Spain & Woodruff, 2023; Waters, 2019). During such times, grit may be especially important for navigating uncertainties and persisting long enough to achieve desired goals.

Moreover, meta-analytic findings have shown grit to be positively related to general well-being (e.g., Hou et al., 2022), and recent studies have shown grit to be related to pandemic resilience in college student samples (Bono et al., 2020; Lytle & Jiyun Shin, 2022). Being able to respond positively in the face of adversity while also maintaining well-being seems essential for managing VUCA situations, such as a pandemic. In their review of research on grit within the medical field, Lee et al. (2021) concluded that grit tends to be positively correlated with psychological well-being and serves as a protective factor against developing burnout. Huffman et al.’s (2021) research showed similar results for the protective power of grit and resilience among medical professionals working during the COVID-19 pandemic. Presumably, high levels of grit would be similarly helpful for service academy students striving toward the long-term goal of graduating and commissioning in the armed forces during a pandemic.

On the other hand, the pandemic may have altered the attractiveness of staying at West Point for reasons that have little to do with grit. For example, cadets who considered leaving West Point prior to the pandemic likely compared their daily activities and living arrangements with the more flexible lifestyles of civilian students. Making such comparisons during the pandemic probably would have shown other college students to be wearing masks, taking classes remotely, and occasionally quarantining or isolating in manners quite similar to cadets. However, cadets at West Point faced additional challenges, especially during the first year of the pandemic, to include temporary prohibitions on leaving the West Point grounds and bans on contact with outside visitors, as well as cancellation of Thanksgiving holiday leave. Despite these challenges, the promise of outcomes associated with the long-term goal of graduating from West Point, such as guaranteed employment, continuing health care, and a profession offering meaning and purpose, may have become more valuable to cadets as they witnessed the profound and ongoing impact of the pandemic on people all over the world.

The previously described study on grit and West Point cadets assessed performance metrics in the physical, military, and academic domains in addition to graduation under non-pandemic, typical conditions (i.e., Duckworth et al., 2019). However, restrictions on facility access and requirements to maintain social distance may have made it more difficult for cadets to achieve and maintain their fitness goals during the pandemic. Additionally, some military training opportunities were canceled or postponed, and essential leader development opportunities for the Class of 2022 differed markedly from prior cohorts and in some cases were much shorter. A variety of temporary changes in the academic program during the pandemic, such as permitting some optional final examinations and allowing late-semester course withdrawals, may have affected academic grades. How well these performance metrics might be predicted by grit, physical fitness, and cognitive ability during the pandemic has not previously been tested.

Given what is known about the predictive power of grit in military outcomes in other contexts and what is still unknown about the effects of the pandemic, the current study was designed to address the following research question: To what extent does grit, assessed at the start of the first summer at West Point, predict cumulative performance scores in the academic, military, and physical domains, as well as graduation 4 years later for a cohort of cadets who spent more than half of their time at the academy functioning under conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic? We expected grit levels to be a significant predictor of both performance and graduation for the Class of 2022 cadets.

Method

Participants

A total of 1,086 cadets who arrived at West Point during the summer of 2018 comprised the initial USMA Class of 2022. The cohort included 24.1% female and 75.9% male cadets. Approximately 66% of the cadets identified as White, 13% Black, 9% Hispanic/Latino, 8% Asian, and 4% other ethnic backgrounds. The average age of cadets at the time of entering West Point was 18.3 years. This class profile is similar to cohorts graduating from USMA between 2019 and 2021 but reflects a higher percentage of female and nonwhite cadets than the cohorts in Duckworth et al.’s (2019) previously mentioned study, which included 17% and 29% of each group, respectively. With both the Institutional Review Board approval as an exempt study of secondary data and USMA approval, cadets’ data for each variable described below were obtained from existing institutional records. Those cadets with missing or incomplete data were excluded, as were those cadets who remained enrolled at USMA but who had not qualified to graduate at the time that this study was conducted (n = 36). The resulting final sample included 817 cadets. Demographic data for the final sample resembled that of the initial Class of 2022 cohort.

Procedures and measures

All cadets in the Class of 2022 cohort had the option to complete the 8-item Grit survey (Duckworth & Quinn, 2009) during the first 3 days after arriving at West Point, and 79% completed the survey (n = 858). Four items on the survey measured perseverance (e.g., “Setbacks don’t discourage me”), and four reverse-scored items measured consistency of interests (e.g., “I often set a goal but later choose to pursue a different one”). Cadets rated the extent of their agreement with each item on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 reflecting “not at all like me” and 5 reflecting “very much like me.” After reverse-coding, the average score was computed as an index of grit, with higher scores reflecting higher levels of the construct. Coefficient alpha was computed as a measure of internal consistency for the scale and equaled .77, which reflects an acceptable level of reliability.

Shortly after arriving at West Point, almost all cadets also completed an initial assessment of physical fitness via the Army Physical Fitness Test (n = 1070). The Army Physical Fitness Test is a three-event timed test comprised of push-ups, sit-ups, and a 2-mile run (Knapik, 1989). Scores for each event were calculated based on norms for sex and age on a continuous scale with a maximum score of 100 per event. Scores for the three events were then summed for a total score out of 300. Higher scores reflect higher levels of physical fitness.

To serve as a proxy for cognitive ability, we obtained cadets’ entrance examination scores on the SAT or ACT from their admissions data. We used published concordance tables from ACT (2018) to convert all ACT scores to SAT scores. If a participant had both SAT and ACT scores, the higher of the two scores was included in the analyses. Together, grit, fitness test, and entrance examination scores served as predictor variables for the planned regression analyses.

Similar to prior studies on grit and performance at West Point (e.g., Duckworth et al., 2019), we used graduation status as a binary dependent variable reflecting success. We obtained records of each cadet’s status as of May 21, 2022, which was the official date of graduation for this cohort. Graduation status was coded as “1 = graduated” for successful on-time graduates and “0 = separated” for non-graduates who either left West Point by voluntary resignation or were separated from West Point by the institution. We also obtained cumulative scores, similar to grade point averages, for performance in the academic (APSC), military (MPSC), and physical (PPSC) domains for all cadets who completed at least one semester. Scores in these domains fell along a continuum of up to 4.33, with higher scores reflecting better performance.

Analytic strategy

We first examined the data by calculating descriptive statistics and correlations. Afterward, we compared grit, fitness test, and entrance examination scores for cadets who departed West Point before versus after the onset of the pandemic using independent groups t tests with a Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. This analysis allowed us to ascertain whether the two groups of nongraduates could be combined into one group for comparisons with graduates or if they needed to be maintained as two distinct groups. Given no significant differences observed between the two groups on the relevant predictor variables, they were combined into the singular category of “separated” for all subsequent analyses. We next examined whether grit, fitness test scores, and entrance examination scores differed for cadets who were separated versus those cadets who graduated using independent groups t tests, again with a Bonferroni correction.

For our focal analyses predicting success, we used binary logistic regression to assess how well grit, fitness test, and entrance examination scores predicted graduation status (graduated vs. separated), with all predictors entered in the model simultaneously. To facilitate interpretation of resulting odds ratios, predictor variables were standardized prior to the analyses. We also calculated the predicted probabilities for several scenarios using scores of one standard deviation above and below the mean in order to communicate the results in more practical terms. We then used three separate ordinary least squares multiple regression analyses to predict the performance outcomes (i.e., cumulative academic program scores, physical program scores, and military program scores) from the same set of predictor variables, again entered simultaneously.

To determine whether the large number of missing data from the grit survey would influence the results, we tested whether these data were missing completely at random (versus missing at random or not missing at random), and a Multiple Imputation (MI) approach was used to confirm the simpler complete-case approach we used in our analyses. R Statistical Software (Version 4.3.0; R Core Team, 2023) and the associated mice package (Version 3.15.0; Van Buuren & Groothuis-Oudshoorn, 2011) were used to perform these missing data analyses. These data were not determined to contain a missing completely at random mechanism (χ2(18) = 46.52, p < .001). Unfortunately, no formal methods currently exist to test for a missing at random mechanism (Enders, 2010). Because the primary source of missingness was from participants who chose not to complete the optional grit survey and it seemed unlikely that the missingness was due to individual levels of grit, we assumed these data to be missing at random. To test this assumption, 100 imputed datasets were created using a linear regression with bootstrap univariate imputation method. These datasets were pooled to produce a combined parameter estimate. The resulting pooled estimates were not substantially different than the simpler and easier to interpret complete-case approach used for the logistic and multiple regression analyses we conducted. Below we present results from the complete-case analyses for interpretation and discussion.

Results

Initial review of descriptive statistics showed the average grit scores for the sample to fall slightly above the midpoint on the scale, the average fitness test score to be well above the required minimum passing score of 180 points, and the average entrance examination score on the SAT to be in the top 10% as reported by The College Board (n.d.). Bivariate correlations among the predictor variables showed grit and fitness test scores to be significantly correlated (r = .13, p < .001), whereas the correlations between grit and entrance examination scores and between fitness test scores and entrance examination scores were nonsignificant. Grit, fitness test, and entrance examination scores were all significantly and positively correlated with performance outcomes in the academic, military, and physical domains, and the three performance outcomes were strongly correlated with each other. Table 1 depicts the descriptive statistics and correlations among variables.

Table 1.

Descriptive statistics and intercorrelations among variables.

Variable Mean (SD) Correlations
Grit FT EE APSC MPSC PPSC
Grit 3.70 (.60) – .13** −.02 .17** .17** .14**
Fitness test (FT) 218.60 (41.75) – – −.01 .24** .30** .38**
Entrance examination (EE) 1354.54 (115.37) – – – .40** .15** .05
APSC 3.05 (.76) – – – – .85** .67**
MPSC 2.92 (.61) – – – – – .77**
PPSC 2.94 (.67) – – – – – –
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** = p < .01.

The initial examination of graduation status indicated that 111 of the 817 (13%) cadets in the sample either resigned voluntarily or were separated from USMA prior to graduation, whereas the remaining 706 graduated on time. Of those who left West Point prior to graduation, 66 cadets departed before and 45 departed after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic on March 11, 2020. Comparisons of grit, fitness test, and entrance examination scores between the groups who left before versus after the onset of the pandemic showed no significant differences (ps > .05). Thus, both groups were combined into the singular category of “separated” for all subsequent analyses. We next examined whether grit, fitness test, and entrance examination scores differed for cadets who were separated versus those cadets who graduated. Both grit and fitness test scores were significantly and meaningfully higher for cadets who graduated than for those who were separated, but entrance examination scores did not differ. Table 2 reflects the descriptive statistics for each group and the t-test results for the comparisons.

Table 2.

Differences for separated and graduated cadets.

  Comparison Condition
      
  Separated
(n = 11)		 Graduated
(n = 706)		 t(815) p Cohen’s d
Grit          
 M 3.42 3.66 −4.03 <.001 −.41
 SD 0.63 0.59      
Fitness          
 M 199.19 221.58 −5.36 <.001 −.54
 SD 46.54 40.00      
Entrance examination          
 M 1342.43 1356.44 −1.19 .234 −.12
 SD 117.06 115.07      
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We used logistic regression to determine whether grit, fitness test, and entrance examination scores predicted graduation status. To facilitate interpretation of the resulting odds ratios, we standardized the predictor variables before conducting the analyses. Results showed that both grit (β = 0.371, p = .001, OR = 1.449, 95% CI [1.172, 1.790]) and fitness test scores (β = 0.456, p < .001, OR = 1.578, 95% CI [1.301, 1.914]), but not entrance examination scores, predicted graduation, Χ2(3) = 39.31, p < .001, Nagelkerke’s R2 = .086. Holding the other variables constant, a one standard deviation increase in standardized grit scores would increase the odds of graduating from West Point by a factor of approximately 1.449. An increase in fitness test scores by one standard deviation while holding the other variables constant would increase the odds of graduating from West Point even more by a factor of 1.578. In practical terms, the predicted probabilities of graduating from West Point with standardized grit scores of −1.0, 0.0, and 1.0 (when the fitness test and entrance examination scores were held constant at the mean) were approximately 83.5%, 88.0%, and 91.4%, respectively. The predicted probabilities of graduating from West Point with standardized grit scores of −1.0, 0.0, and 1.0 when fitness test scores were one standard deviation below the mean and entrance examination scores were held constant at the mean were approximately 76.2%, 82.3%, and 87.1%, respectively. When fitness test scores were one standard deviation above the mean and entrance examination scores were held at the mean, the predicted probabilities of graduating from West Point with grit scores of −1.0, 0.0, and 1.0 were approximately 88.9%, 92.0%, and 94.4%. Examination of variance inflation factor scores indicated that multicollinearity among predictors was not a problem; all scores were less than 1.02. Results from the logistic regression analysis are presented in Table 3.

Table 3.

Results from logistic regression predicting graduation status.

  B SE p OR 95% CI for OR
Lower Upper
Standardized grit .371 .108 .001 1.449 1.172 1.790
Standardized fitness test .456 .098 .000 1.578 1.301 1.914
Standardized entrance examination .124 .104 .231 1.132 .924 1.387
Constant 1.993 .114 .000 7.334    
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Model Χ2(3) = 39.31, p < .001, Nagelkerke’s R2 = .086.

We used a series of ordinary least squares regression tests to determine whether grit, fitness test, and entrance examination scores predicted specific performance outcomes in the academic (APSC), military (MPSC), and physical (PPSC) domains. All regression coefficients are shown in Table 4. Results from the analysis predicting APSC showed all three predictors and the overall model to be significant, F (3, 792) = 163.21, p < .001, R2 = .38. Entrance examination scores were the strongest predictor, followed by fitness test scores, and then grit. Results from the analysis predicting MPSC showed all three predictors and the overall model to be significant, F (3, 791) = 63.98, p < .001, R2 = .20. Fitness test scores were the strongest predictor, followed by entrance examination scores, and then grit. Finally, results from the analysis predicting PPSC showed all three predictors and the overall model to be significant, F (3, 793) = 61.67, p < .001, R2 = .19. Fitness test scores were the strongest predictor, followed by grit, and then entrance examination scores.

Table 4.

Regression coefficients for predicting cumulative academic, military, and physical program performance.

  APSC
 MPSC
 PPSC
Variable B SE B β B SE B β B SE B β
Constant −1.91 0.23   0.88 0.17   1.29 0.22  
Grit 0.16 0.28 .17** 0.11 0.02 .17** 0.07 0.03 .09**
Fitness test 0.00 0.00 .21** 0.00 0.00 .30** 0.01 0.00 .41**
Entrance examination 0.00 0.00 .55** 0.00 0.00 .26** 0.00 0.00 .07**
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APSC = cumulative academic program score; MPSC = cumulative military program score; PPSC = cumulative physical program score.

*p < .05. **p < .01.

Discussion

These results showed both initial physical fitness and grit to be significant predictors of 4-year retention through graduation at West Point for a class cohort experiencing more than 2 years of pandemic-related uncertainty. Entrance examination scores, however, were nonsignificant. This finding is generally consistent with those from Duckworth et al.’s (2019) study of nine cohorts of West Point cadets entering between 2004 and 2014; they found that both grit and physical fitness scores at the time of entry into West Point were better predictors of West Point graduation than entrance examination scores, although all three were statistically significant. However, the model in the current study only accounted for a modest amount of variance, at approximately 8.6%, which suggests that variables unaccounted for may have played more important roles than any of the three variables included in this study. Still, the contribution from these variables is nontrivial and merits discussion. That physical fitness predicted graduation is not surprising in that it is also associated with success in elite military training settings such as Ranger School (Benedict et al., 2022) and the U.S. Army Special Forces Assessment and Selection course (Farina et al., 2019). Results from the current study confirm that grit also mattered during this period of prolonged uncertainty for the West Point Class of 2022 cadets. The finding that entrance examination scores did not predict graduation was surprising, though the average entrance examination score was high enough that the range of scores may have been somewhat restricted. Cognitive ability may also have been less important to navigating to a successful graduation from West Point during the pandemic than in prior years in part because adapting to the remote learning environment may have drawn more heavily on other factors such as intrinsic motivation and interpersonal skills to achieve success.

Results from the analyses predicting specific performance scores in the academic, military, and physical domains showed all three variables to predict performance, though the order of importance and magnitude varied. For example, the best predictor of academic program scores clearly was entrance examination scores. However, fitness test scores were the next most important predictor, followed by grit. The best predictor of military programs scores was fitness test scores, followed by entrance examination scores and then grit. Not surprisingly, fitness test scores were the best predictor of performance in the physical domain, followed by grit and then academic program scores. Although the model for predicting academic performance accounted for the highest variance at approximately 38%, the models predicting military and physical performance accounted for less variance at approximately 20% and 19%, respectively. These results suggest that although grit may have played a nontrivial role, other factors not accounted for in this study, including variables such as hardiness or conscientiousness, may have been better predictors of each of these outcomes.

Despite the many disruptions associated with the pandemic, West Point cadets may have experienced some unexpected benefits. For example, West Point cadets historically obtain insufficient sleep (Miller et al., 2008). Cancellation of various activities, the use of remote instruction, and even occasional mandatory quarantine periods during the pandemic may have afforded cadets a greater number of opportunities for obtaining sufficient sleep. Similar to de Zepetnek et al.’s finding that people with higher grit levels were more physically active and had better diets early during the pandemic, cadets with higher grit levels may have engaged in behaviors that promoted both their health and physical fitness, to include getting more adequate rest, which may have aided cadets’ performance across performance domains. Specifically, better rest may have helped cadets with memory consolidation after studying (Miller et al., 2008). Although scientific evidence regarding quantity and quality of sleep during the pandemic is not available for the cadet population, anecdotal reports to the authors from cadets include assertions that the pandemic conditions helped at least some of them engage in more sleep recovery.

Limitations

There are limitations to the study that are worth noting. For example, resilience, hardiness, conscientiousness, and tolerance for ambiguity might also have predicted performance outcomes and West Point graduation. However, data on these variables were not available for inclusion in the study. Additionally, even though results from analyses using multiple imputation were highly similar to the results that we generated and reported using the complete case approach, the potential of a selection effect due to the missing data for the grit survey cannot be completely ruled out. Moreover, individual differences that were not accounted for in this study, such as the extent to which cadets and their family and friends may have been exposed to and affected by COVID-19 and other pandemic-related stressors, may also have affected some cadets’ willingness or ability to continue their studies at West Point.

Implications

These results have important ramifications. Although West Point is only one accession source for commissioned officers, the U.S. Army must commission enough officers each year to meet its needs. Given diminished opportunities for in-person recruitment and the possibility that pandemic-related health issues may have rendered some otherwise interested candidates unqualified to serve, the pressure to enroll applicants at service academies who are both passionate about military service and persistent enough to graduate may increase. In other words, recruiting gritty candidates or attempting to increase grit levels among interested candidates may become an important part of the service academy admissions processes and retention efforts.

On the other hand, the importance of physical fitness as the best predictor in the models tested for graduation status, physical performance, and military performance suggests that interventions designed to boost physical fitness levels, perhaps especially for cadets who initially perform at lower levels, are worthy of consideration. Given concerns that grit interventions may yield only weak effects (Credé et al., 2017), interventions designed to increase fitness and resilience more comprehensively may have a greater impact. McInerney et al. (2022) recently proposed using an enhanced psychological readiness metric at regular intervals to better assess resilience and psychological readiness at both the individual and unit levels. Adopting such an approach could also allow unit leaders to better understand how unique circumstances, such as wide-spread infectious disease outbreaks, might impact the physical and psychological readiness of their units.

Future directions

One direction for future research might be to follow this West Point cohort throughout their years as commissioned officers, tracking outcomes such as performance, retention in the Army, and wellbeing. Given that grit levels among this cohort predicted some variance in performance outcomes and graduation from West Point during a global pandemic, grit might also predict variance in future achievements for this cohort. Another avenue for future research might be to assess whether grit and physical fitness predict other types of military outcomes during VUCA situations. For example, both U.S. Army Ranger School and the Special Forces Assessment and Selection course are significantly shorter in duration than the 47-month West Point experience. Conceivably, high levels of grit or physical fitness might become more or less important for success in these (relatively) shorter duration experiences when they are disrupted by VUCA situations. Presumably, lessons learned from this context might also be of value for understanding student success during the pandemic in other highly competitive and stressful educational environments, such as medical or law school programs. Finally, future research might examine whether interventions designed to boost grit and fitness in times of prolonged uncertainty might protect personnel working in high-stress occupations from experiencing burnout.

Conclusion

In conclusion, results from the current study indicate that, along with physical fitness, grit remains an important predictor of graduation for West Point cadets even under pandemic conditions. Moreover, grit, physical fitness, and entrance examination scores all predicted performance outcomes in the academic, military, and physical domains. Persisting through more than 2 years of the pandemic in order to attain the long-term goal of graduation from West Point also suggests that this cohort might be one to watch for future excellence.

Funding Statement

The authors received no funding in support of this research. The Institutional Review Board approved all procedures: project control number CA-2022-57.

Disclaimer

The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not reflect the position of the USMA, the Department of the Army, or the Department of Defense.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Data availability statement

The data for this study are not publicly available because they belong to the USMA and cannot be released without authorization. Requests to access the dataset should be directed to the first author at elizabeth.wetzler@westpoint.edu.

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Associated Data

This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.

Data Availability Statement

The data for this study are not publicly available because they belong to the USMA and cannot be released without authorization. Requests to access the dataset should be directed to the first author at elizabeth.wetzler@westpoint.edu.

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