No intervention (SC0) scenario
|
| New child infections due to vertical transmission |
8700 (5350–13700) |
8300 (5100–13050) |
7850 (4800–12350) |
7350 (4500–11550) |
7000 (4300–11000) |
6550 (4000–10300) |
6250 (3800–9800) |
5900 (3650–9300) |
5600 (3450–8800)
|
| Vertical transmission rate (%) |
41.9 (25.2–64.6) |
40.8 (27.9–58.3) |
39.3 (30.8–50.2) |
37.6 (28.5–47.4) |
36.8 (28.6–47) |
35.7 (27.9–46.8) |
35.6 (27.8–48.1) |
35.5 (27.3–48.3) |
35.3 (26.3–46.8)
|
Status quo (SC1) scenario
|
| New child infections due to vertical transmission |
4150 (2550–6500) |
3500 (2150–5500) |
3300 (2000–5200) |
3150 (1900–4950) |
2950 (1800–4700) |
2800 (1700–4400) |
2650 (1600–4150) |
2500 (1550–3950) |
2350 (1450–3750)
|
| Vertical transmission rate (%) |
19.9 (12–30.7) |
17.2 (11.8–24.6) |
16.5 (12.9–21.1) |
16 (12.1–20.2) |
15.6 (12.2–20) |
15.2 (11.9–19.9) |
15 (11.7–20.2) |
14.9 (11.5–20.3) |
14.9 (11.1–19.7)
|
Business-as-usual (SC2) scenario
|
| New child infections due to vertical transmission |
4150 (2550–6500) |
3100 (1900–4850) |
2550 (1600–4050) |
2250 (1400–3600) |
2050 (1250–3250) |
1850 (1150–2950) |
1700 (1050–2700) |
1550 (950–2450) |
1450 (900–2250)
|
| Vertical transmission rate (%) |
19.9 (12–30.7) |
15.2 (10.4–21.7) |
12.9 (10.1–16.5) |
11.6 (8.8–14.7) |
10.8 (8.4–13.8) |
10.1 (7.9–13.3) |
9.7 (7.6–13.1) |
9.3 (7.2–12.7) |
9.0 (6.7–11.9)
|
On-track (SC3) scenario
|
| New child infections due to vertical transmission |
4150 (2550–6500) |
3200 (1950–5000) |
2700 (1650–4250) |
2300 (1400–3600) |
1850 (1150–2900) |
1450 (900–2300) |
1400 (850–2200) |
1300 (800–2050) |
1250 (750–1950)
|
| Vertical transmission rate (%) |
19.9 (12–30.7) |
15.7 (10.7–22.4) |
13.5 (10.6–17.2) |
11.6 (8.8–14.7) |
9.7 (7.6–12.4) |
7.9 (6.2–10.4) |
7.9 (6.1–10.6) |
7.9 (6–10.7) |
7.7 (5.8–10.3)
|
Fast-track (SC4) scenario
|
| New child infections due to vertical transmission |
4150 (2550–6500) |
2950 (1800–4650) |
2250 (1400–3550) |
1650 (1000–2600) |
1550 (950–2450) |
1450 (900–2300) |
1400 (850–2150) |
1300 (800–2050) |
1250 (750–1950)
|
| Vertical transmission rate (%) |
19.9 (12–30.7) |
14.5 (9.9–20.8) |
11.4 (8.9–14.5) |
8.5 (6.4–10.7) |
8.2 (6.4–10.5) |
7.9 (6.2–10.4) |
7.9 (6.1–10.6) |
7.8 (6–10.7) |
7.7 (5.8–10.3) |
