Table 2.
Transitional probabilities between different states of catastrophic health expenditures.
| Country | No CHE year "t" |
CHE year "t" |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No CHE in year "t+1" | CHE in year "t+1" | No CHE in year "t+1" | CHE in year "t+1" | |
| Panel A. 5% Total budget share | ||||
| Wave 1 to wave 2 | ||||
| Malawi (2010 to 2013) | 0.8656 [0.0119] | 0.1344 [0.0119] | 0.7701 [0.0275] | 0.2299 [0.0275] |
| Tanzania (2008 to 2010) | 0.8162 [0.0345] | 0.1838 [0.0345] | 0.6755 [0.0868] | 0.3245 [0.0868] |
| Uganda (2009 to 2010) | 0.7699 [0.0181] | 0.2301 [0.0181] | 0.6998 [0.0248] | 0.3002 [0.0248] |
| Wave 2 to wave 3 | ||||
| Malawi (2013 to 2016) | 0.7216 [0.0156] | 0.2784 [0.0156] | 0.5876 [0.038] | 0.4124 [0.038] |
| Tanzania (2010 to 2012) | 0.8482 [0.0342] | 0.1518 [0.0342] | 0.7001 [0.1025] | 0.2999 [0.1025] |
| Uganda (2010 to 2011) | 0.7567 [0.018] | 0.2433 [0.018] | 0.6349 [0.033] | 0.3651 [0.033] |
| Wave 3 to wave 4 | ||||
| Uganda (2011 to 2013) | 0.8178 [0.0156] | 0.1822 [0.0156] | 0.6174 [0.0355] | 0.3826 [0.0355] |
| Wave 4 to wave 5 | ||||
| Uganda (2013 to 2015) |
0.8565 [0.0156] |
0.1435 [0.0156] |
0.7326 [0.0334] |
0.2674 [0.0334] |
| Panel B. 10% Total budget share | ||||
| Wave 1 to wave 2 | ||||
| Malawi (2010 to 2013) | 0.9465 [0.007] | 0.0535 [0.007] | 0.8331 [0.032] | 0.1669 [0.032] |
| Tanzania (2008 to 2010) | 0.9206 [0.0223] | 0.0794 [0.0223] | 0.8698 [0.0352] | 0.1302 [0.0352] |
| Uganda (2009 to 2010) | 0.8931 [0.0111] | 0.1069 [0.0111] | 0.8395 [0.0265] | 0.1605 [0.0265] |
| Wave 2 to wave 3 | ||||
| Malawi (2013 to 2016) | 0.8522 [0.0121] | 0.1478 [0.0121] | 0.6197 [0.0559] | 0.3803 [0.0559] |
| Tanzania (2010 to 2012) | 0.9078 [0.0294] | 0.0922 [0.0294] | 0.914 [0.0389] | 0.086 [0.0389] |
| Uganda (2010 to 2011) | 0.8491 [0.0145] | 0.1509 [0.0145] | 0.8169 [0.0357] | 0.1831 [0.0357] |
| Wave 3 to wave 4 | ||||
| Uganda (2011 to 2013) | 0.8953 [0.0114] | 0.1047 [0.0114] | 0.7729 [0.0443] | 0.2271 [0.0443] |
| Wave 4 to wave 5 | ||||
| Uganda (2013 to 2015) |
0.9509 [0.0083] |
0.0491 [0.0083] |
0.8347 [0.0374] |
0.1653 [0.0374] |
| Panel C. 25% Capacity to pay | ||||
| Wave 1 to wave 2 | ||||
| Malawi (2010 to 2013) | 0.9056[0.0099] | 0.0944[0.0099] | 0.7788[0.0351] | 0.2212[0.0351] |
| Tanzania (2008 to 2010) | 0.8747[0.0286] | 0.1253[0.0286] | 0.8103[0.0341] | 0.1897[0.0341] |
| Uganda (2009 to 2010) | 0.9159[0.0093] | 0.0841[0.0093] | 0.8635[0.0293] | 0.1365[0.0293] |
| Wave 2 to wave 3 | ||||
| Malawi (2013 to 2016) | 0.8015[0.0137] | 0.1985[0.0137] | 0.6673[0.0431] | 0.3327[0.0431] |
| Tanzania (2010 to 2012) | 0.9098[0.0166] | 0.0902[0.0166] | 0.6529[0.1382] | 0.3471[0.1382] |
| Uganda (2010 to 2011) | 0.8657[0.0136] | 0.1343[0.0136] | 0.8241[0.0416] | 0.1759[0.0416] |
| Wave 3 to wave 4 | ||||
| Uganda (2011 to 2013) | 0.9347[0.0089] | 0.0653[0.0089] | 0.8517[0.0411] | 0.1483[0.0411] |
| Wave 4 to wave 5 | ||||
|
Uganda (2013 to 2015) |
0.9789[0.0045] |
0.0211[0.0045] |
0.8673[0.0402] |
0.1327[0.0402] |
| Number of households (H) | Uganda [1295] | Tanzania [2905] | Malawi [1661] | |
| Number of waves (T) | 5 | 3 | 3 | |
| Number of observations (H x T) | Uganda [6475] | Tanzania [8715] | Malawi [4983] | |
Notes: The estimates are conditional probabilities based on balanced panel using longitudinal weights. Malawi IHPS for years 2010, 2013 and 2016; Tanzania TNSP for years 2008, 2010, and 2012; Uganda UNPS for years 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2015. The data has been adjusted for inflation using 2011 as the reference year to reflect price changes over the analysis period. CHE defined at 5% and 10% of the budget share are based on Wagstaff and Doorslaer (2003). CHE at 25% of the capacity-to-pay are based on the methodology proposed by Xu et al. (2003).