Table 2.

XGBoost, GRU, Logistic Regression, LightGBM, LSTM, Naïve Bayes Models, and the Clinical Model in Predicting Clinical Outcomes at Different Visit Intervals Over a 5-Year Term Using the Noncumulative Approach

Visit	Prediction at 5-Year Term
	XGboost	GRU	Logistic Regression	LightGBM	LSTM	Naïve Bayes	Clinical Model
Baseline	0.80 (0.79-0.81)	0.73 (0.72-0.74)	0.73 (0.72-0.75)	0.80 (0.79-0.81)	0.72 (0.71-0.74)	0.72 (0.70-0.73)	0.70 (0.69-0.72)
1 year	0.83 (0.82-0.84)	0.82 (0.81-0.83)	0.80 (0.79-0.81)	0.84 (0.83-0.85)	0.81 (0.80-0.82)	0.79 (0.78-0.80)	0.71 (0.70-0.73)
2 years	0.83 (0.82-0.84)	0.82 (0.81-0.83)	0.80 (0.79-0.82)	0.84 (0.83-0.85)	0.81 (0.80-0.82)	0.77 (0.76-0.79)	0.72 (0.71-0.74)
3 years	0.84 (0.83-0.86)	0.82 (0.81-0.84)	0.79 (0.78-0.81)	0.85 (0.83-0.86)	0.81 (0.80-0.83)	0.77 (0.75-0.78)	0.66 (0.64-0.67)
4 years	0.79 (0.77-0.81)	0.78 (0.76-0.80)	0.75 (0.73-0.78)	0.80 (0.78-0.81)	0.78 (0.76-0.80)	0.76 (0.74-0.77)	0.64 (0.62-0.65)
5 years	0.81 (0.78-0.83)	0.82 (0.80-0.84)	0.81 (0.79-0.84)	0.83 (0.80-0.85)	0.82 (0.79-0.84)	0.72 (0.69-0.75)	0.58 (0.57-0.60)
Average	0.82 (0.80-0.83)	0.80 (0.79-0.81)	0.78 (0.77-0.80)	0.83 (0.81-0.84)	0.79 (0.78-0.81)	0.76 (0.74-0.77)	0.67 (0.66-0.69)

Values are AUC (95% CI). Bold represent the best score of a row. If scores matches, the one with the higher 95% CI is bold. If score and 95% CI match between 2 scores, then both are bold.

AUC = area under curve; GRU = Gated Recurrent Unit; LSTM = Long Short-Term Memory.