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. 2024 Sep 17;13(9):804. doi: 10.3390/pathogens13090804

Figure 2.

Figure 2

Expected annual polio cases for global bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (bOPV) cessation occurring in 2027 and outbreak response for using monovalent OPV (mOPV) (assumptions and result from the prior study [48]), or using updated assumptions for novel OPV (nOPV). Outbreak response scenarios for nOPV (baseline) assume nOPV2 best or nOPV2 worst from 2022 on, and outbreak response for type 1 or 3 using Sabin-strain bOPV until 2027, and then either homotypic nOPV best or nOPV worst for types 1 and 3 (see text and prior studies [48,49] for assumed characteristics of nOPV best and nOPV worst bounds).