Figure 3.
Expected annual polio cases for global bivalent OPV (bOPV) cessation in 2027 and outbreak response for type 2 using novel OPV (nOPV) with either nOPV2 best or nOPV2 worst from 2022 on, and outbreak response for type 1 or 3 using Sabin-strain bOPV until 2027, and then either homotypic nOPV best or nOPV worst (see text and prior studies [48,49] for assumed characteristics of nOPV best and nOPV worst bounds) after bOPV cessation without (baseline) and with additional preventive supplemental immunization activities using bOPV (i.e., intensification) added in some model subpopulations (see text and Figure 1).