Table 3.

Overview of DCF scenarios.

Variable	Base Case	Scenarios Modelled
Vaccine demand [17]	MR-MAPs are adopted beginning in 2030 with the high coverage assumption No HIC demand is included Assumes significant uptake of MR-MAPs to 100 million doses	HIC demand is included Assumes lower uptake of MR-MAPs to 50 million doses
Market prices for MR-MAPs	Gavi: $1.29 Self-procuring LMIC: $1.48 UMIC: $2.63 HIC: $9.11	Higher estimated MR-MAP prices were used: Gavi: $2.92 Self-procuring LMIC: $3.36 UMIC: $5.20 HIC: $20.64
COGS	30% mark-up on the Gavi price or $0.90	$0.90 and declines to $0.70 starting in Year 6 Upper bound of $1.40
Clinical development cost	Phase I: Fully financed by the donor Phase II: $24 million and financed by a donor Phase III: $18 million from 2025–2027	Phase I: Fully financed by the donor Phase II: $16.8 million Phase III: $45.5 million
Manufacturing facility investment	A required investment of $60 million for the MAPs filling line setup: $30 million small-scale plant and $30 million for scale up to 100 million dose capacity (fill and finish only)	A required investment of $30 million for scale up to 100 million dose capacity (fill and finish only) A required investment of $37.5 million for a small-scale plant and $173 million for expansion to 100 million dose capacity (including drug substance)
Hurdle rate (Ibid)	10.5%	18%