Table 2.

The effect of each considered risk factor on pneumococcal acquisition and clearance rates estimated from the Markov model using data from a longitudinal nasopharyngeal swabbing study conducted in Blantyre, Malawi, between September 2021 and December 2023

Description	HR (95% CI)a	HR (95% CI)a	HR (95% CI)a
Total carriage	VT carriage	NVT carriage
Daily pneumococcal carriage acquisition
HIV/ART status
HIV-	Reference	Reference	Reference
ALWHIV ART < 3 months	1.33 (0.95–1.86)	0.62 (0.30–1.25)	1.35 (0.94–1.92)
ALWHIV ART > 1 year	1.34 (0.97–1.87)	1.03 (0.52–2.01)	1.43 (1.01–2.02)b
Sex
Male	Reference	Reference	Reference
Female	1.64 (1.262–2.12)*	1.96 (1.11– 3.49)*	1.53 (1.17–2.01)b
Age group
18–33 years	Reference	Reference	Reference
34–44 years	0.86 (0.66–1.12)	1.13 (0.65–1.97)	0.79 (0.60–1.04)
Number of under 5y children in the house
One child	Reference	Reference	Reference
Two or more children	1.06 (0.81–1.38)	1.78 (1.05–3.01)*	1.10 (0.84–1.45)
Social economic status (SES)
High	Reference	Reference	Reference
Low	1.47 (1.12–1.94)*	2.06 (1.13–3.77)*	1.38 (1.03–1.83)b
Daily pneumococcal carriage clearance
HIV/ART status
HIV-	Reference	Reference	Reference
ALWHIV ART < 3 months	0.80 (0.59–1.10)	0.53 (0.25–1.10)	0.76 (0.54–1.05)
ALWHIV ART > 1 year	0.68 (0.50–0.92)*	0.79 (0.41–1.50)	0.65 (0.47–0.90)b
Sex
Male	Reference	Reference	Reference
Female	0.97 (0.75–1.24)	0.93 (0.54–1.60)	0.94 (0.72–1.23)
Age group
18–33 years	Reference	Reference	Reference
34–44 years	1.05 (0.82–1.35)	1.30 (0.72–2.35)	1.00 (0.77–1.29)

SES Social economic status is based on possession index, calculated as a sum of positive responses for household ownership of each of one of 15 different functioning items: watch, radio, bank account, iron (charcoal), sewing machine (electric), mobile phone, CD player, fan (electric), bednet, mattress, bed, bicycle, motorcycle, car, and television

^aHR refers to hazard ratio of the incidence or clearance rates

^bStatistically significant at 95% confidence intervals (95% CI)