Fig. 4.

Estimated mean time spent in each state from 1 to 15 years after UDCA initiation, by UDCA response status at 1 year.

Patients with inadequate response to UDCA at 1 year were estimated to remain in their IR-1 state for an additional mean of 3.4 years (95% CI 3.0-3.8). If these patients achieve adequate biochemical response, they were expected to retain this response and remain in AR-1 for 4.5 years (95% CI 4.1-4.9). Patients with adequate response at 1 year were estimated to remain in their AR-1 state for an additional 6.6 years (95% CI 6.1-7.0). A patient with inadequate response to UDCA at 1 year will enter the IR1 state, and any subsequent achievement of biochemical response moves them to the AR-1 state. A patient with adequate response to UDCA at 1 year will enter the AR-1 state, and any subsequent loss of response moves them to the IR-2 state. The time a patient is estimated to spend in each state was defined by the integral of the transition probability matrix from 1 to 15 years after UDCA initiation. AR-, adequate response; IR-, inadequate response; LT, liver transplant; UDCA, ursodeoxycholic acid.