Table 1. Examples of modelling studies that may support design of policies to increase resilience to pandemics.

Focus area	Example modelling objectives	References
Building design	Enhancing greater ventilation to reduce respiratory pathogen transmission, particularly in locations where large numbers of people congregate.	((65,66))
Estimations to support decisions on public health capacity	Estimation of the surveillance effort needed to detect cases of emerging pathogens.	((67,68))
	Estimation of the test-and-trace effort needed to control transmission, in the absence of restrictive measures, according to different characteristics of pathogens and the diseases they cause.	((31,69))
Tools for strategic decisions	Criteria for determining if elimination of a pathogen in a particular jurisdiction would be successful, or if public health measures should aim simply to ”flatten the curve” to limit impacts on healthcare.	((70))
	Estimation of the likelihood of control by test-and-trace versus restrictive measures, according to characteristics of pathogens and the diseases they cause (R0 and proportions of cases with asymptomatic, presymptomatic or severe manifestations).	((71))
	Criteria for targeting NPIs to specific demographic or geographic sections of the population.	((32,72))
Best practices for use of public health measures	Best practices for the use of restrictive measures if these are needed to control transmission.	((52,73))
	Recommendations for the use of NPIs that reduce the probability or impact of transmission, such as distancing, masking and cohorting at gatherings.	((73,74,78))

Abbreviation: NPIs, non-pharmaceutical interventions