Table 2:

Shifts in properties of thermal performance curves (TPCs) for models of predicted suitability of malaria transmission, $S(T)$, due to temperature fluctuations.

Model & Fluctuation Regime	$T_{\mathit{opt}}$ (°C)	$T_{\mathit{max}}$ (°C)	$T_{\mathit{breadth}}$ (°C)	$S(T_{\mathit{opt}})$
2) Empirical fluctuating - 3 traits
DTR 9	−1.2	−0.8	−0.8	−32.0%
DTR 12	−1.4	−1.8	−1.2	−33.8%
3) Trait-level RS - 3 traits
DTR 9	−0.1	0.0	0.0	−10.0%
DTR 12	−0.2	0.0	0.0	−17.1%
4) Trait-level RS - all traits
DTR 9	−0.2	+4.0	+9.0	−18.1%
DTR 12	−0.4	+5.3	+11.9	−30.6%
5) $S(T)$-level RS
DTR 9	−0.1	+4.0	+9.0	−19.9%
DTR 12	+0.1	+5.3	+11.9	−32.0%

Differences in thermal optimum ($T_{\mathit{opt}}$), thermal maximum ($T_{\mathit{max}}$), and thermal breadth ($T_{\mathit{breadth}}$), and the percent change in median S(T) predicted at $T_{\mathit{opt}}$, compared to the constant temperature model (model 1). Fluctuating models are parameterized with trait TPCs fit from empirical data (model 2: “Empirical fluctuating”) or are calculated using rate summation (RS). Rate summation was used only for the three traits with empirical data (model 3: “Trait-level RS - 3 traits”), for all traits (model 4: “Trait-level RS - all traits”), or directly on the TPC for suitability, $S(T)$, at constant temperatures (model 5: “$S(T)$-level RS”). Diurnal temperature ranges (DTR) = 9 and 12°C. Differences calculated using median values. See Table S3 for original parameter values for each model.