Table 2.
Performance of the recalibrated risk prediction models according to sex, median age, median BMI, and residency based on diagnosis by FPG and HbA1c
| Models | Men | Women | P-Value | Age < 51 | Age ≥ 51 | P-Value | BMI < 25 kg/m2 | BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 | P-Value | Rural | Urban | P-Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sample Size |
n = 261 (30 cases) |
n = 676 (70 cases) |
n = 447 (35 cases) |
n = 490 (65 cases) |
n = 477 (25 cases) |
N = 460 (75 cases) |
n = 527 (47 cases) |
n = 410 (53 cases) |
|||||
| ADRS | |||||||||||||
| FPG-based diagnosis | E/O |
0.86 [0.60–1.24] |
1.06 [0.84–1.34] |
0.88 [0.63–1.22] |
1.00 [0.79–1.28] |
1.14 [0.77–1.69] |
0.92 [0.73–1.15] |
1.13 [0.85–1.51] |
0.89 [0.68–1.16] |
||||
| C-Statistic |
0.77 [0.68–0.85] |
0.78 [0.73–0.83] |
0.86 |
0.78 [0.70–0.85] |
0.73 [0.67–0.79] |
0.34 |
0.77 [0.67–0.86] |
0.67 [0.60–0.74] |
0.10 |
0.78 [0.72–0.85] |
0.76 [0.69–0.82] |
0.59 | |
| HbA1c-based diagnosis | E/O |
1.04 [0.78–1.40] |
0.78 [0.67–0.91] |
0.98 [0.76–1.28] |
0.77 [0.66–0.90] |
1.09 [0.82–1.43] |
0.74 [0.63–0.86] |
0.97 [0.79–1.18] |
0.73 [0.61–0.87] |
||||
| C-Statistic |
0.76 [0.68–0.85] |
0.97 [0.75–0.83] |
0.50 |
0.78 [0.71–0.86] |
0.72 [0.66–0.77] |
0.13 |
0.67 [0.59–0.76] |
0.72 [0.67–0.77] |
0.34 |
0.76 [0.71–0.82] |
0.80 [0.76–0.85] |
0.25 | |
| Sample Size |
n = 261 (30 cases) |
n = 676 (71 cases) |
n = 447 (35 cases) |
n = 490 (66 cases) |
n = 447 (25 cases) |
n = 490 (76 cases) |
n = 527 (47 cases) |
n = 410 (54 cases) |
|||||
| Simplified FINDRISC | |||||||||||||
| FPG-based diagnosis | E/O |
0.43 [0.30–0.61] |
1.16 [0.92–1.47] |
1.11 [0.80–1.55] |
0.84 [0.66–1.07] |
0.63 [0.43–0.94] |
1.00 [0.80–1.25] |
1.13 [0.85–1.50] |
0.81 [0.62–1.06] |
||||
| C-Statistic |
0.64 [0.53–0.76] |
0.72 [0.66–0.78] |
0.28 |
0.68 [0.58–0.78] |
0.65 [0.58–0.72] |
0.56 |
0.58 [0.44–0.72] |
0.54 [0.47–0.62] |
0.66 |
0.69 [0.60–0.77] |
0.68 [0.61–0.75] |
0.90 | |
| HbA1c-based diagnosis | E/O |
0.57 [0.43–0.77] |
0.86 [0.74–0.99] |
1.21 [0.93–1.57] |
0.66 [0.57–0.77] |
0.67 [0.51–0.89] |
0.82 [0.70–0.95] |
0.97 [0.79–1.18] |
0.68 [0.57–0.81] |
||||
| C-Statistic |
0.74 [0.65–0.83] |
0.76 [0.72–0.80] |
0.60 |
0.80 [0.73–0.86] |
0.71 [0.6–0.76] |
0.03 |
0.66 [0.58–0.75] |
0.64 [0.58–0.69] |
0.61 |
0.76 [0.71–0.81] |
0.77 [0.72–0.82] |
0.81 | |
| Sample Size |
n = 261 (15 cases) |
n = 676 (34 cases) |
n = 447 (12 cases) |
n = 490 (37 cases) |
n = 477 (13 cases) |
n = 460 (36 cases) |
n = 527 (27 cases) |
n = 410 (22 cases) |
|||||
| ADA | |||||||||||||
| FPG-based diagnosis | E/O |
2.58 [1.81–3.70] |
2.82 [2.24–3.56] |
2.39 [1.72–3.33] |
2.75 [2.16–3.49] |
3.15 [2.13–4.67] |
2.43 [1.94–3.04] |
2.88 [2.17–3.84] |
2.65 [2.03–3.46] |
||||
| C-Statistic |
0.75 [0.63–0.87] |
0.75 [0.68–0.83] |
0.96 |
0.74 [0.64–0.83] |
0.68 [0.59–0.77] |
0.37 |
0.81 [0.73–0.89] |
0.64 [0.55–0.74] |
0.01 |
0.82 [0.74–0.89] |
0.65 [0.54–0.76] |
0.01 | |
| HbA1c-based diagnosis | E/O |
2.70 [2.01–3.63] |
1.73 [1.49-2.00] |
2.39 [1.84–3.11] |
1.73 [1.49–2.02] |
2.81 [2.13–3.71] |
1.59 [1.37–1.85] |
2.12 [1.73–2.58] |
1.79 [1.50–2.14] |
||||
| C-Statistic |
0.80 [0.70–0.90] |
0.77 [0.72–0.82] |
0.55 |
0.77 [0.69–0.86] |
0.69 [0.62–0.76] |
0.12 |
0.68 [0.58–0.78] |
0.68 [0.62–0.75] |
0.99 |
0.80 [0.74–0.86] |
0.73 [0.66–0.80] |
0.17 | |
| Sample Size |
n = 261 (15 cases) |
n = 676 (34 cases) |
n = 447 (12 cases) |
n = 490 (37 cases) |
n = 477 (13 cases) |
n = 460 (36 cases) |
n = 527 (27 cases) |
n = 410 (22 cases) |
|||||
| IRS | |||||||||||||
| FPG-based diagnosis | E/O |
0.68 [0.48–0.97] |
0.98 [0.78–1.24] |
1.03 [0.74–1.43] |
0.79 [0.62–1.01] |
0.99 [0.67–1.47] |
0.80 [0.64-1.00] |
0.98 [0.74–1.30] |
0.83 [0.63–1.08] |
||||
| C-Statistic |
0.79 [0.69–0.89] |
0.74 [0.65–0.82] |
0.45 |
0.68 [0.56–0.80] |
0.70 [0.61–0.79] |
0.81 |
0.72 [0.60–0.84] |
0.65 [0.56–0.75] |
0.40 |
0.79 [0.70–0.87] |
0.66 [0.55–0.78] |
0.10 | |
| HbA1c-based diagnosis | E/O |
1.08 [0.80–1.45] |
0.92 [0.79–1.07] |
1.42 [1.10–1.85] |
0.78 [0.67–0.91] |
1.25 [0.95–1.65] |
0.83 [0.71–0.96] |
1.09 [0.89–1.33] |
0.86 [0.72–1.02] |
||||
| C-Statistic |
0.84 [0.75–0.92] |
0.76 [0.71–0.82] |
0.14 |
0.83 [0.76–0.89] |
0.70 [0.64–0.77] |
0.01 |
0.68 [0.60–0.77] |
0.67 [0.61–0.74] |
0.78 |
0.80 [0.74–0.86] |
0.76 [0.69–0.83] |
0.39 | |
*Values [95% CI]; +P-values compare the C-statistic between stratified groups. FPG – fasting plasma glucose; HbA1c – glycated haemoglobin; E/O – expected/observed
Sample sizes differ for each risk prediction model, as participants with missing data were excluded per model