Table 2.
Predicted versus actual incident CKD or eGFR decline ≥ 30% over four years in individuals with type 1 diabetes and performance metrics at the two PromarkerD risk cut-offs
| No adverse renal outcomes (predicted) | Incident CKD or ≥ 30% 4-year eGFR decline (predicted) | Total (predicted) |
Performance metrics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensitivity (%) |
Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | ||||
| Moderate risk cut-off (10%) | |||||||
| No adverse renal outcomes (actual) | 75 | 8 | 83 | 77.8 | 90.4 | 46.7 | 97.4 |
| Incident CKD/ ≥ 30% eGFR decline (actual) | 2 | 7 | 9 | ||||
| Total (actual) | 77 | 15 | 92 | ||||
| High risk cut-off (20%) | |||||||
| No adverse renal outcomes (actual) | 81 | 2 | 83 | 22.2 | 97.6 | 50.0 | 92.0 |
| Incident CKD/ ≥ 30% eGFR decline (actual) | 7 | 2 | 9 | ||||
| Total (actual) | 88 | 4 | 92 | ||||