. 2024 Sep 16;39(9):1037–1050. doi: 10.1007/s10654-024-01154-0

Table 1.

Excess deaths

Cause	Year	Denmark	Finland	Norway	Sweden
All-cause	2020	54,400; 53,567	833 (− 372; 2038)	1.02(0.99; 1.04)	55,498; 54,802	696 (− 10; 1402)	1.01 (1.00; 1.03)	40,558; 40,590	− 32 (− 751; 687)	1.00 (0.98; 1.02)	98,308; 91,196	7112 (5911; 8313)	1.08 (1.06; 1.09)
2021	56,870; 53,820	3059 (1749; 4351)	1.06 (1.03; 1.08)	57,632; 55,232	2400 (1641; 3159)	1.04 (1.03; 1.06)	41,713; 40,514	1199 (429; 1969)	1.03 (1.01; 1.05)	92,079; 91,227	852 (− 430; 2134)	1.01 (1.00; 1.02)
2022	59,120; 54,081	5039 (3632; 6446)	1.09 (1.06; 1.12)	63,172; 55,242	7930 (7119; 8741)	1.14 (1.12; 1.17)	45,947; 40,282	5665 (4844; 6486)	1.14 (1.12; 1.16)	94,823; 91,647	3176 (1794; 4558)	1.03 (1.02; 1.05)
COVID-19	2020	1075; –	1075 (–)	–	558; –	558 (–)	–	414; –	414 (–)	–	9495; –	9495 (–)	–
2021	1480; –	1480 (–)	–	952; –	952 (–)	–	864; –	864 (–)	–	5321; –	5321 (–)	–
2022	1590; –	1590 (–)	–	4349; –	4349 (–)	–	2858; –	2858 (–)	–	3535; –	3535 (–)	–
Respiratory (non-COVID-19)	2020	5720; 6515	− 795 (− 1136; − 454)	0.88 (0.83; 0.92)	1749; 2067	− 318 (− 459; − 177)	0.85 (0.79; 0.9)	3768; 4639	− 871 (− 1118; − 624)	0.81 (0.77; 0.86)	5550; 6994	− 1444 (− 1809; − 1079)	0.79 (0.75; 0.83)
2021	5995; 6616	− 621 (− 988; − 254)	0.91 (0.86; 0.96)	1766; 2077	− 311 (− 466; − 156)	0.85 (0.79; 0.91)	3660; 4731	− 1071 (− 1334; − 808)	0.77 (0.73; 0.82)	5043; 7172	− 2129 (− 2517; − 1741)	0.70 (0.67; 0.74)
2022	6300; 6719	− 419 (− 817; − 21)	0.94 (0.88; 0.99)	1940; 2077	− 137 (− 304; 30)	0.93 (0.86; 1.01)	4401; 4807	− 406 (− 686; − 126)	0.92 (0.86; 0.97)	6173; 7389	− 1216 (− 1633; − 799)	0.84 (0.79; 0.88)
Cardiovascular	2020	11,560; 11,549	11 (− 452; 474)	1.00 (0.96; 1.04)	18,496; 17,994	502 (116; 888)	1.03 (1.00; 1.05)	9577; 9235	342 (− 3; 687)	1.04 (1.00; 1.08)	28,111; 28,128	− 17 (− 566; 532)	1.00 (0.98; 1.02)
2021	11,935; 11,277	658 (160; 1156)	1.06 (1.01; 1.11)	18,789; 17,605	1184 (767; 1601)	1.07 (1.04; 1.10)	10,205; 8746	1459 (1091; 1827)	1.17 (1.12; 1.22)	27,464; 27,194	270 (− 314; 854)	1.01 (0.99; 1.03)
2022	12,130; 10,987	1143 (602; 1684)	1.10 (1.05; 1.16)	19,526; 17,024	2502 (2055; 2949)	1.15 (1.11; 1.19)	10,381; 8192	2189 (1795; 2583)	1.27 (1.21; 1.33)	28,251; 26,354	1897 (1270; 2524)	1.07 (1.05; 1.10)
Cancer	2020	16,315; 16,352	− 37 (− 358; 284)	1.00 (0.98; 1.02)	13,411; 13,338	73 (− 248; 394)	1.01 (0.98; 1.04)	11,144; 11,275	− 131 (− 409; 147)	0.99 (0.96; 1.01)	23,532; 24,092	− 560 (− 974; − 146)	0.98 (0.96; 0.99)
2021	16,470; 16,405	65 (− 280; 410)	1.00 (0.98; 1.03)	13,550; 13,501	49 (− 296; 394)	1.00 (0.97; 1.04)	11,216; 11,283	− 67 (− 365; 231)	0.99 (0.97; 1.02)	23,070; 24,228	− 1158 (− 1603; − 713)	0.95 (0.93; 0.97)
2022	16,135; 16,449	− 314 (− 686; 58)	0.98 (0.96; 1.00)	13,495; 13,610	− 115 (− 483; 253)	0.99 (0.95; 1.03)	11,537; 11,269	268 (− 51; 587)	1.02 (0.99; 1.05)	23,436; 24,430	− 994 (− 1474; − 514)	0.96 (0.94; 0.98)
Dementia	2020	4270; 4872	− 602 (− 829; − 375)	0.88 (0.84; 0.92)	10,673; 11,211	− 538 (− 885; − 191)	0.95 (0.92; 0.98)	4067; 4376	− 309 (− 495; − 123)	0.93 (0.89; 0.97)	9709; 10,303	− 594 (− 900; − 288)	0.94 (0.91; 0.97)
2021	4785; 5151	− 366 (− 611; − 121)	0.93 (0.88; 0.97)	11,455; 11,861	− 406 (− 780; − 32)	0.97 (0.93; 1.00)	4265; 4630	− 365 (− 565; − 165)	0.92 (0.88; 0.96)	8652; 10,747	− 2095 (− 2422; − 1768)	0.81 (0.78; 0.83)
2022	4805; 5450	− 645 (− 910; − 380)	0.88 (0.84; 0.92)	12,313; 12,388	− 75 (− 475; 325)	0.99 (0.96; 1.03)	4442; 4867	− 425 (− 637; − 213)	0.91 (0.87; 0.95)	9201; 11,285	− 2084 (− 2439; − 1729)	0.82 (0.79; 0.84)
Diabetes	2020	1275; 1416	− 141 (− 253; − 29)	0.90 (0.83; 0.97)	667; 596	71 (10; 132)	1.12 (0.98; 1.26)	762; 545	217 (146; 288)	1.40 (1.22; 1.58)	2316; 2196	120 (− 3; 243)	1.05 (1.00; 1.11)
2021	1355; 1430	− 75 (− 198; 48)	0.95 (0.87; 1.03)	672; 614	58 (− 9; 125)	1.09 (0.93; 1.26)	787; 527	260 (184; 336)	1.49 (1.28; 1.71)	2235; 2230	5 (− 128; 138)	1.00 (0.94; 1.06)
2022	1340; 1444	− 104 (− 237; 29)	0.93 (0.84; 1.01)	714; 629	85 (14; 156)	1.14 (0.94; 1.33)	843; 506	337 (255; 419)	1.67 (1.39; 1.94)	2317; 2277	40 (− 103; 183)	1.02 (0.95; 1.08)
External	2020	2188; 2163	24 (− 103; 151)	1.01 (0.95; 1.07)	3084; 3074	10 (− 162; 182)	1.00 (0.93; 1.07)	2638; 2609	29 (− 112; 170)	1.01 (0.96; 1.07)	4871; 5190	− 319 (− 509; − 129)	0.94 (0.90; 0.97)
2021	2140; 2175	− 35 (− 172; 102)	0.98 (0.92; 1.05)	3221; 3039	182 (− 2; 366)	1.06 (0.97; 1.15)	2657; 2622	35 (− 116; 186)	1.01 (0.96; 1.07)	4969; 5241	− 272 (− 474; − 70)	0.95 (0.91; 0.98)
2022	2348; 2191	156 (9; 303)	1.07 (1.00; 1.14)	3147; 2994	153 (− 43; 349)	1.05 (0.95; 1.16)	2747; 2630	117 (− 42; 276)	1.04 (0.98; 1.11)	5196; 5312	− 116 (− 332; 100)	0.98 (0.94; 1.02)
Other	2020	11,998; 10,700	1298 (667; 1929)	1.12 (1.06; 1.19)	6860; 6523	337 (94; 580)	1.05 (1.01; 1.09)	8188; 7884	304 (28; 580)	1.04 (1.00; 1.07)	14,724; 14,293	431 (12; 850)	1.03 (1.00; 1.06)
2021	12,710; 10,766	1944 (1264; 2624)	1.18 (1.11; 1.26)	7227; 6535	692 (431; 953)	1.11 (1.06; 1.16)	8059; 7948	111 (− 183; 405)	1.01 (0.98; 1.05)	15,325; 14,415	910 (461; 1359)	1.06 (1.03; 1.10)
2022	14,473; 10,840	3632 (2897; 4367)	1.34 (1.24; 1.43)	7688; 6520	1168 (888; 1448)	1.18 (1.12; 1.24)	8738; 7985	753 (437; 1069)	1.09 (1.05; 1.14)	16,714; 14,600	2114 (1632; 2596)	1.14 (1.11; 1.18)

Cause

Year

Denmark

Finland

Norway

Sweden

Deaths (actual & expected)

Absolute excess deaths (95% PI)

Relative excess deaths (95% PI)

Deaths (actual & expected)

Absolute excess deaths (95% PI)

Relative excess deaths (95% PI)

Deaths (actual & expected)

Absolute excess deaths (95% PI)

Relative excess deaths (95% PI)

Deaths (actual & expected)

Absolute excess deaths (95% PI)

Relative excess deaths (95% PI)

All-cause

2020

54,400;

53,567

833

(− 372; 2038)

1.02(0.99; 1.04)

55,498;

54,802

696

(− 10; 1402)

1.01

(1.00; 1.03)

40,558;

40,590

− 32

(− 751; 687)

1.00

(0.98; 1.02)

98,308;

91,196

7112

(5911; 8313)

1.08

(1.06; 1.09)

2021

56,870;

53,820

3059

(1749; 4351)

1.06

(1.03; 1.08)

57,632;

55,232

2400

(1641; 3159)

1.04

(1.03; 1.06)

41,713;

40,514

1199

(429; 1969)

1.03

(1.01; 1.05)

92,079;

91,227

852

(− 430; 2134)

1.01

(1.00; 1.02)

2022

59,120;

54,081

5039

(3632; 6446)

1.09

(1.06; 1.12)

63,172;

55,242

7930

(7119; 8741)

1.14

(1.12; 1.17)

45,947;

40,282

5665

(4844; 6486)

1.14

(1.12; 1.16)

94,823;

91,647

3176

(1794; 4558)

1.03

(1.02; 1.05)

COVID-19

2020

1075;

–

1075

(–)

–

558;

–

558

(–)

–

414;

–

414

(–)

–

9495;

–

9495

(–)

–

2021

1480;

–

1480

(–)

–

952;

–

952

(–)

–

864;

–

864

(–)

–

5321;

–

5321

(–)

–

2022

1590;

–

1590

(–)

–

4349;

–

4349

(–)

–

2858;

–

2858

(–)

–

3535;

–

3535

(–)

–

Respiratory (non-COVID-19)

2020

5720;

6515

− 795

(− 1136; − 454)

0.88

(0.83; 0.92)

1749;

2067

− 318

(− 459; − 177)

0.85

(0.79; 0.9)

3768;

4639

− 871

(− 1118; − 624)

0.81

(0.77; 0.86)

5550;

6994

− 1444

(− 1809; − 1079)

0.79

(0.75; 0.83)

2021

5995;

6616

− 621

(− 988; − 254)

0.91

(0.86; 0.96)

1766;

2077

− 311

(− 466; − 156)

0.85

(0.79; 0.91)

3660;

4731

− 1071

(− 1334; − 808)

0.77

(0.73; 0.82)

5043;

7172

− 2129

(− 2517; − 1741)

0.70

(0.67; 0.74)

2022

6300;

6719

− 419

(− 817; − 21)

0.94

(0.88; 0.99)

1940;

2077

− 137

(− 304; 30)

0.93

(0.86; 1.01)

4401;

4807

− 406

(− 686; − 126)

0.92

(0.86; 0.97)

6173;

7389

− 1216

(− 1633; − 799)

0.84

(0.79; 0.88)

Cardiovascular

2020

11,560;

11,549

(− 452; 474)

1.00

(0.96; 1.04)

18,496;

17,994

502

(116; 888)

1.03

(1.00; 1.05)

9577;

9235

342

(− 3; 687)

1.04

(1.00; 1.08)

28,111;

28,128

− 17

(− 566; 532)

1.00

(0.98; 1.02)

2021

11,935;

11,277

658

(160; 1156)

1.06

(1.01; 1.11)

18,789;

17,605

1184

(767; 1601)

1.07

(1.04; 1.10)

10,205;

8746

1459

(1091; 1827)

1.17

(1.12; 1.22)

27,464;

27,194

270

(− 314; 854)

1.01

(0.99; 1.03)

2022

12,130;

10,987

1143

(602; 1684)

1.10

(1.05; 1.16)

19,526;

17,024

2502

(2055; 2949)

1.15

(1.11; 1.19)

10,381;

8192

2189

(1795; 2583)

1.27

(1.21; 1.33)

28,251;

26,354

1897

(1270; 2524)

1.07

(1.05; 1.10)

Cancer

2020

16,315;

16,352

− 37

(− 358; 284)

1.00

(0.98; 1.02)

13,411;

13,338

(− 248; 394)

1.01

(0.98; 1.04)

11,144;

11,275

− 131

(− 409; 147)

0.99

(0.96; 1.01)

23,532;

24,092

− 560

(− 974; − 146)

0.98

(0.96; 0.99)

2021

16,470;

16,405

(− 280; 410)

1.00

(0.98; 1.03)

13,550;

13,501

(− 296; 394)

1.00

(0.97; 1.04)

11,216;

11,283

− 67

(− 365; 231)

0.99

(0.97; 1.02)

23,070;

24,228

− 1158

(− 1603; − 713)

0.95

(0.93; 0.97)

2022

16,135;

16,449

− 314

(− 686; 58)

0.98

(0.96; 1.00)

13,495;

13,610

− 115

(− 483; 253)

0.99

(0.95; 1.03)

11,537;

11,269

268

(− 51; 587)

1.02

(0.99; 1.05)

23,436;

24,430

− 994

(− 1474; − 514)

0.96

(0.94; 0.98)

Dementia

2020

4270;

4872

− 602

(− 829; − 375)

0.88

(0.84; 0.92)

10,673;

11,211

− 538

(− 885; − 191)

0.95

(0.92; 0.98)

4067;

4376

− 309

(− 495; − 123)

0.93

(0.89; 0.97)

9709;

10,303

− 594

(− 900; − 288)

0.94

(0.91; 0.97)

2021

4785;

5151

− 366

(− 611; − 121)

0.93

(0.88; 0.97)

11,455;

11,861

− 406

(− 780; − 32)

0.97

(0.93; 1.00)

4265;

4630

− 365

(− 565; − 165)

0.92

(0.88; 0.96)

8652;

10,747

− 2095

(− 2422; − 1768)

0.81

(0.78; 0.83)

2022

4805;

5450

− 645

(− 910; − 380)

0.88

(0.84; 0.92)

12,313;

12,388

− 75

(− 475; 325)

0.99

(0.96; 1.03)

4442;

4867

− 425

(− 637; − 213)

0.91

(0.87; 0.95)

9201;

11,285

− 2084

(− 2439; − 1729)

0.82

(0.79; 0.84)

Diabetes

2020

1275;

1416

− 141

(− 253; − 29)

0.90

(0.83; 0.97)

667;

596

(10; 132)

1.12

(0.98; 1.26)

762;

545

217

(146; 288)

1.40

(1.22; 1.58)

2316;

2196

120

(− 3; 243)

1.05

(1.00; 1.11)

2021

1355;

1430

− 75

(− 198; 48)

0.95

(0.87; 1.03)

672;

614

(− 9; 125)

1.09

(0.93; 1.26)

787;

527

260

(184; 336)

1.49

(1.28; 1.71)

2235;

2230

(− 128; 138)

1.00

(0.94; 1.06)

2022

1340;

1444

− 104

(− 237; 29)

0.93

(0.84; 1.01)

714; 629

(14; 156)

1.14

(0.94; 1.33)

843;

506

337

(255; 419)

1.67

(1.39; 1.94)

2317;

2277

(− 103; 183)

1.02

(0.95; 1.08)

External

2020

2188;

2163

(− 103; 151)

1.01

(0.95; 1.07)

3084;

3074

(− 162; 182)

1.00

(0.93; 1.07)

2638;

2609

(− 112; 170)

1.01

(0.96; 1.07)

4871;

5190

− 319

(− 509; − 129)

0.94

(0.90; 0.97)

2021

2140;

2175

− 35

(− 172; 102)

0.98

(0.92; 1.05)

3221;

3039

182

(− 2; 366)

1.06

(0.97; 1.15)

2657;

2622

(− 116; 186)

1.01

(0.96; 1.07)

4969;

5241

− 272

(− 474; − 70)

0.95

(0.91; 0.98)

2022

2348;

2191

156

(9; 303)

1.07

(1.00; 1.14)

3147;

2994

153

(− 43; 349)

1.05

(0.95; 1.16)

2747;

2630

117

(− 42; 276)

1.04

(0.98; 1.11)

5196;

5312

− 116

(− 332; 100)

0.98

(0.94; 1.02)

Other

2020

11,998;

10,700

1298

(667; 1929)

1.12

(1.06; 1.19)

6860;

6523

337

(94; 580)

1.05

(1.01; 1.09)

8188;

7884

304

(28; 580)

1.04

(1.00; 1.07)

14,724;

14,293

431

(12; 850)

1.03

(1.00; 1.06)

2021

12,710;

10,766

1944

(1264; 2624)

1.18

(1.11; 1.26)

7227;

6535

692

(431; 953)

1.11

(1.06; 1.16)

8059;

7948

111

(− 183; 405)

1.01

(0.98; 1.05)

15,325;

14,415

910

(461; 1359)

1.06

(1.03; 1.10)

2022

14,473;

10,840

3632

(2897; 4367)

1.34

(1.24; 1.43)

7688;

6520

1168

(888; 1448)

1.18

(1.12; 1.24)

8738;

7985

753

(437; 1069)

1.09

(1.05; 1.14)

16,714;

14,600

2114

(1632; 2596)

1.14

(1.11; 1.18)

Expected deaths were estimated based on strata-specific ten-year trends (2010–2019). Prediction intervals (PIs) were obtained as estimates ± 1.96*standard error