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. 2024 Oct 15;3(10):pgae393. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae393

Fig. 4.

Twelve line charts arranged in four columns of three charts each. Each chart has two lines plotted on it, one solid and one dashed. Each line has a shaded area around it representing uncertainty. Starting from the left, the first column is labeled “High Accuracy, Certain Perspective”, the second column is labeled “High Accuracy, Uncertain Perspective”, the third column is labeled “Low Accuracy, Certain Perspective”, and the fourth column is labeled “Low Accuracy, Uncertain Perspective”. The top row of charts shows beliefs about the truth of the perspective. The middle row shows beliefs about the authority’s accuracy. The bottom row shows beliefs about the authority’s bias. See description comparing the results for the four scenarios in the main text.

Interaction between accuracy belief value and perspective belief uncertainty in determining the polarization of beliefs. In all four simulations, both subgroups are initially somewhat certain that the authority is impartial (mean = 0, std = 0.15), and both subgroups are quite uncertain about their accuracy beliefs as well. Low and high accuracy correspond to belief values (i.e. distribution mean) of 0.2 and 0.8, respectively. Certain and uncertain perspective beliefs correspond to belief distributions with standard deviation of 0.05 and 0.15, respectively.