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. 2024 Jul 4;30(10):2813–2820. doi: 10.1038/s41591-024-03134-z

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© The Author(s) 2024

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Extended Data Fig. 4 — a) Chemoprevention (rfMDA vs. RACD). b) Vector control (RAVC vs. no RAVC). c) Combined intervention (rfMDA + RAVC vs. RACD only). Data are presented as cumulative incidence ratios between study arms with vertical bars to indicate 95% confidence intervals not accounting for potential outcome correlation. For rfMDA and RACD arms, the primary analysis includes the period from 0–35 days following index case detection for direct effects and 21–56 days for spillover effects; the alternative observation period analysis includes the period from 0–21 days following index case detection for direct effects and 21 to 42 days for spillover effects. For rfMDA + RAVC and RAVC only arms, the primary analysis includes the period from 0–6 months following index case detection for direct effects and 17 days to 6 months for spillover effects; the alternative observation period analysis includes the period from 0–7 days following index case detection for direct effects and 17 to 90 days for spillover effects. Total effects analyses include the person-time for the direct effects and spillover effects analyses. Direct effect includes intervention recipients in target zone. Spillover effect includes intervention non-recipients up to 1 km from an index case. Total effect includes all individuals (intervention recipients and non-recipients) up to 1 km from index case. Sensitivity analyses for no overlap of spillover zones excluded any cohorts whose spillover zones overlapped spatially or temporally with other spillover zones. Sensitivity analyses for no overlap of target areas excluded any cohorts whose target areas overlapped spatially or temporally with other target areas. Some direct effects models could not be fit due to data sparsity. All outcome models were fit with cohort-level data except for models of spillover effects of rfMDA vs. RACD and rfMDA + RAVC vs. RACD only. Ns reported in Supplementary Table 7.