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. 2024 Sep 25;634(8034):600–608. doi: 10.1038/s41586-024-07985-x

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© The Author(s) 2024

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.

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Extended Data Fig. 6 — (a) Boxplots showing the distribution of NEMED grape phenology (grape ripening date, vine date, and wine quality) data during historical northern (red) versus southern (blue) summer EU JSL extremes in NEMED region (data for BRIT not available). We determined EU JSL extremes by calculating D90 and D10 values over the period of overlap between grape phenology records and the EU JSL reconstruction. Wine quality deviation values were inversed for visualization purposes. Details of the grape phenology series, such as locations, references, period, and proxies can be found in Extended Data Table 5. (b) Boxplots showing the distribution of instrumental grape yield (1961–2018 ce) during northern (red) versus southern (blue) summer EU JSL extremes in BRIT and NEMED. We determined EU JSL extremes by calculating D80 (north, n = 12 years) and D20 (south, n = 12 years) values over the instrumental period 1961–2018 ce. Grape yield data are derived from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and were detrended using a 20-year smoothing spline (see Methods). In panels (a) and (b), we calculated statistical significance in grape phenology and yield distribution using a Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Significant results are represented by one (p ≤ 0.05) and two (p ≤ 0.01) asterisks in panel (a) and by p-values in panel (b). The lower and upper extremes are indicated by whiskers, and dots on each boxplot represent outliers.