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. 2024 Sep 25;634(8034):600–608. doi: 10.1038/s41586-024-07985-x

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© The Author(s) 2024

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if you modified the licensed material. You do not have permission under this licence to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.

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Fig. 2 — a–d, Composite analysis maps of gridded maize (a,b) and wheat (c,d) yield for extremely northern (a,c; D80, n = 8 years) and southern (b,d; D20, n = 8 years) EU JSL positions over the period 1981–2016 ce. Maize yield composites were calculated for the NEMED region (no substantial maize data are available for the BRIT region) and wheat yield composites were calculated for the BRIT and NEMED regions. Coloured composite maps are shown only where P ≤ 0.1 and areas with statistically significant results after controlling for the false discovery rate (α_FDR ≤ 0.1) are cross-hatched. Black boxes show the locations of BRIT and NEMED regions. Crop yield data were derived from the Global Dataset of Historical Yield gridded dataset and were detrended using a 20-year smoothing spline (Methods).