FIGURE 3.

Predicting cognitive decline over 2 years. (A) ROC curves demonstrating that performance on the digital cognitive battery (maroon) reliably predicts future cognitive decline while cortical Aβ (blue) and EC tau (green) do not. (B) OCL performance reliably predicts future cognitive decline while IDN (light green), DET (light blue), and OBT (orange) do not. (C) OCL appears nearly twice as often in top third of models from a permutation analysis, suggesting that OCL performance is most influential in predicting future cognitive decline. (D) ROC curves demonstrate that cortical Aβ, EC tau, and the digital cognitive assessment could each predict conversion from MCI to AD. (E) None of the cognitive tasks could reliably predict conversion from MCI to AD. (F) A permutation analysis found that EC tau was the most common metric in the top third of models suggesting that this measure is important for predicting progression from MCI to AD.