Table 3.
Performance of screening tools for predicting one or more falls in 1 year
| Screening tool | TPs | TNs | % Sensitivity (95% CI) | % Specificity (95% CI) | % PPV (95% CI) | % NPV (95% CI) | % Accuracy (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World falls guidelines algorithm using the Three Key Questions and Fried’s frailty criteria | |||||||
| Low versus high risk | 180 | 601 | 43.5 (40.7, 46.3) | 77.0 (74.6, 79.4) | 50.0 (47.2, 52.8) | 72.0 (69.5, 74.5) | 65.4 (62.7, 68.1) |
| Low versus intermediate to high risk | 216 | 601 | 48.0 (45.3, 50.7) | 68.0 (65.5, 70.5) | 43.3 (40.6, 46.0) | 72.0 (69.6, 74.4) | 61.2 (58.6, 63.8) |
| Low to intermediate versus high risk | 180 | 704 | 40.0 (37.4, 42.6) | 79.6 (77.4, 81.8) | 50.0 (47.3, 52.7) | 72.3 (69.9, 74.7) | 66.3 (63.8, 68.8) |
| World falls guidelines algorithm using the Three Key Questions and Clinical Frailty Scale classification tree | |||||||
| Low versus high risk | 172 | 602 | 42.2 (39.4, 45.0) | 80.4 (78.1, 82.7) | 53.9 (51.0, 56.8) | 71.8 (69.2, 74.4) | 66.9 (64.2, 69.6) |
| Low versus intermediate to high risk | 222 | 602 | 48.5 (45.8, 51.2) | 67.7 (65.2, 70.2) | 43.6 (41.0, 46.2) | 71.8 (69.4, 74.2) | 61.2 (58.6, 63.8) |
| Low to intermediate versus high risk | 172 | 742 | 37.6 (35.0, 40.2) | 83.5 (81.5, 85.5) | 53.9 (51.2, 56.6) | 72.2 (69.8, 74.6) | 67.9 (65.4, 70.4) |
| World falls guidelines algorithm using the single fall history question | |||||||
| Low versus high risk | 143 | 773 | 31.9 (29.4, 34.4) | 87.8 (86.0, 89.6) | 57.2 (54.5, 59.9) | 71.7 (69.3, 74.1) | 69.0 (66.5, 71.5) |
| Low versus intermediate to high risk | 158 | 773 | 34.1 (31.6, 36.6) | 85.3 (83.4, 87.2) | 54.3 (51.7, 56.9) | 71.7 (69.3, 74.1) | 68.0 (65.5, 70.5) |
| Low to intermediate versus high risk | 143 | 799 | 30.9 (28.5, 33.3) | 88.2 (86.5, 89.9) | 57.2 (54.6, 59.8) | 71.4 (69.0, 73.8) | 68.8 (66.3, 71.3) |
| American Geriatrics Society and British Geriatrics Society algorithm | |||||||
| Low versus high risk | 208 | 662 | 44.7 (42.1, 47.3) | 73.1 (70.8, 75.4) | 46.0 (43.4, 48.6) | 72.0 (69.6, 74.4) | 63.5 (61.0, 66.0) |
| Three Key Questions | 398 | 287 | 86.0 (84.2, 87.8) | 31.9 (29.4, 34.4) | 39.3 (36.7, 41.9) | 81.5 (79.4, 83.6) | 50.2 (47.5, 52.9) |
| Single fall history question | 223 | 688 | 47.9 (45.3, 50.5) | 75.5 (73.2, 77.8) | 50.0 (47.4, 52.6) | 73.9 (71.6, 76.2) | 66.2 (63.7, 68.7) |
CI = confidence interval; NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value; TPs = true positive cases; TNs = true negative cases.