Table 1.
Overview of preregistered research questions and hypotheses
Research question | Hypothesis |
---|---|
Q1. Is the classic scientific consensus message effective compared to a control message? | H1a–e (main effects: control versus classic consensus). |
Compared to the control condition, participants in the classic consensus condition: | |
(a) perceive a higher scientific consensus that human-caused climate change is happening (controlling for pre-intervention perceptions of the reality consensus), | |
(b) believe more in the reality of climate change, | |
(c) believe more in the human causation of climate change, | |
(d) worry more about climate change and | |
(e) support public action on climate change more. | |
Q2. Is the updated scientific consensus message effective compared to a control message? | H2a–g (main effects: control versus updated consensus). |
Compared to the control condition, participants in the updated consensus condition: | |
(a) perceive a higher scientific consensus that human-caused climate change is happening (controlling for pre-intervention perceptions of the reality consensus), | |
(b) perceive higher scientific agreement that climate change is a crisis (controlling for pre-intervention perceptions of the crisis agreement), | |
(c) believe more in the reality of climate change, | |
(d) believe more in the human causation of climate change, | |
(e) believe more that climate change constitutes a crisis, | |
(f) worry more about climate change and | |
(g) support public action on climate change more. | |
Q3. Is the updated scientific consensus message more effective than the classic consensus message? | H3a–c (main effects: classic consensus versus updated consensus). |
Compared to the classic consensus condition, participants in the updated consensus condition: | |
(a) believe more that climate change constitutes a crisis, | |
(b) worry more about climate change and | |
(c) support public action on climate change more. | |
Q4. Does the effectiveness of the classic consensus message vary by subgroup? | H4a–c (interaction effects: control versus classic consensus). |
Controlling for pre-intervention perceptions of the reality consensus, the effect of the classic consensus versus control condition on reality consensus perceptions is moderated by: | |
(a) message familiarity, such that the message is more effective for those who report lower familiarity with the classic consensus statement and | |
(b) trust in climate scientists, such that the message is more effective for those who report greater trust in climate scientists. | |
Controlling for pre-intervention perceptions of the reality consensus, the effect of the classic consensus versus control condition on reality consensus perceptions is not moderated by: | |
(c) political ideology. | |
Q5. Does the effectiveness of the updated consensus message vary by subgroup? | We planned the following exploratory analyses: |
1. Is the effect of the updated versus control condition on reality consensus perceptions moderated by: | |
2. (a) message familiarity (of the classic consensus message), | |
3. (b) trust in climate scientists and | |
4. (c) political ideology, controlling for pre-intervention perceptions of the reality consensus? | |
5. Is the effect of the updated versus control condition on crisis agreement perceptions moderated by: | |
6. (a) message familiarity (of the classic and the updated consensus message), | |
7. (b) trust in climate scientists and | |
8. (c) political ideology, controlling for pre-intervention perceptions of the crisis agreement? | |
Q6. Does the effectiveness of both interventions vary by country? | We planned to explore if the effectiveness of the interventions varies by country. |