Table 3.
QALY breakdown, probabilistic analysis
| Outcome | Intervention arm (95% CI) | OCS-only arm (95% CI) | Incremental (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|
| QALYs gained by health state | |||
| No OCS-related AEs | 8.176 (7.050–9.122) | 7.932 (6.840–8.856) | 0.244 (0.212–0.271) |
| T2DM | 0.615 (0.523–0.693) | 0.635 (0.540–0.715) | −0.020(−0.023 to −0.017) |
| Osteoporosis | 0.302 (0.259–0.340) | 0.346 (0.296–0.388) | −0.043(−0.049 to −0.037) |
| eCVD | 0.840 (0.714–0.949) | 0.887 (0.755–1.002) | −0.047(−0.054 to −0.040) |
| Following multiple events | 0.295 (0.250–0.333) | 0.360 (0.304–0.406) | −0.065 (−0.073 to −0.055) |
| Treatment | |||
| OCS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Transient events | |||
| Glaucoma | 0.000090 (0.000057–0.000129) | 0.000101 (0.000064–0.000145) | −0.000011 (−0.000016 to −0.000007 |
| Cataract | 0.000327 (0.000198–0.000487) | 0.000384 (0.000233–0.000571) | −0.000056 (−0.000084 to −0.000035) |
| Renal impairmenta | 0.030018 (0.022816–0.037427) | 0.032594 (0.024798–0.040678) | −0.002608 (−0.002007 to −0.003265) |
| Peptic ulcer | 0.000097 (0.000054–0.000146) | 0.000106 (0.000059–0.000160) | −0.000010 (−0.000015 to −0.000006 |
| Pneumonia | 0.000593 (0.000143–0.001295) | 0.000672 (0.000163–0.001476) | −0.000082 (−0.000186 to −0.000020) |
| Adrenal insufficiency | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| Totals | |||
| Total health state utilities | 10.228 (8.796–11.437) | 10.176 (8.735–11.369) | 0.066 (0.014–0.121) |
| Total transient event disutilities | −0.031 (−0.039 to −0.023) | −0.034 (−0.042 to −0.026) | 0.003 (0.0021–0.0034) |
| Grand total | 10.197 (8.761–11.389) | 10.126 (8.761–11.389) | 0.071 (0.064–0.077) |
AEs adverse event, CI confidence interval, eCVD established cardiovascular disease, OCS oral corticosteroids, T2DM type 2 diabetes mellitus, QALY quality-adjusted life-year
aRenal impairment is captured per cycle but is based on prevalence and can therefore can be considered as a chronic event