Figure 3. Inference of CNV formation rate and selection coefficient from experimental evolutionary data.

(A) Collective MAP estimate (black markers) and 50% HDR (colored areas) of GAP1 CNV formation rate, ${\text{δ}}_C$, and selection coefficient, $S_C$. Marginal posterior distributions are shown on the top and right axes. (B) Collective posterior prediction of Shannon diversity of CNV lineages ($e^{-\sum _i\left[p_{i}log\left(p_i\right)\right]}$, Jost, 2006). Line and shaded area show mean and 50% HDI. (C) CNV reported frequency $\left(X_{C^{+}}\right)$ prediction using collective MAP (solid line) compared to empirical observations (dotted lines).