Table 3.

Changepoints (credible intervals) and their probabilities in the proportion of active duty service members with newly and historically documented diagnoses corresponding to gender dysphoria, January 2015 – August 2022

Newly Documented		Historically Documented
Changepoint (Credible Interval)	Pr.	Changepoint (Credible Interval)	Pr.	Salient Events
July 2016 (June 2016 – September 2016)	98%	May 2016 (March 2016 – July 2016)	> 99%	July 2015: DoD Secretary Ash Carter releases a statement reflecting that policies related to open service are “outdated” and initiates study and action to develop new policy. June 2016: First Department of Defense policy allowed open service.
July 2017 (February 2017 – April 2018)	68%	September 2017 (May 2017 – October 2017)	> 99%	July 2017: Presidential tweet announced plan to reinstate bar to active duty service for most trans people; legal delays to enacting. March 2018: Secretary Mathis’s plan regarding service accepted by President. Plan challenged and went to Supreme Court.
May 2019 (November 2018 – October 2019)	80%	April 2019 (February 2019 – September 2019)	96%	January 2019: Supreme Court indicates the plan can go into effect. April 2019: DTM-19-004 again barred most open service.
February 2021 (January 2021 – March 2021)	> 99%	December 2020 (October 2020 – February 2021)	> 99%	January 2021: EO 14,004 directed removal of bar to open service. April 2021: Revision of DoDI again allowed open service. Service-specific policies released over several months.

Pr. Probability, DoD Department of Defense, DoDI Department of Defense Instruction, EO Executive Order