Table 3.
HIV incidence reduction and maximum price per dose for increasing lenacapavir distribution scenarios
|
South Africa |
Western Kenya |
Zimbabwe |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price threshold | HIV incidence reduction | Price threshold | HIV incidence reduction | Price threshold | HIV incidence reduction | |
| Female sex workers | ||||||
| Female sex workers only | $589·0 (454·0–726·0) | 6·0% (1·0–14·0) | $23·0 (18·0–28·0) | 7·0% (1·7–12·8) | $39·0 (28·0–54·0) | 5·7% (9·2–17·2) |
| Female sex workers and males with more than one sexual partner | $87·0 (81·0–92·0) | 19·0% (13·0–25·0) | $10·2 (9·6–10·7) | 31·0% (27·4–35·0) | $13·3 (13·0–15·8) | 21·7% (10·1–33·8) |
| VOICE scores | ||||||
| Females with VOICE score >5 only | $92·0 (84·0–100·0) | 16·0% (10·0–22·0) | $14·0 (7·4–13·2) | 35·0% (32·0–39·0) | $4·9 (2·6–7·2) | 13·0% (0·2–25·4) |
| Females with VOICE score >5, and males with more than one sexual partner | $65·0 (61·0–69·0) | 25·0% (20·0–31·0) | $7·5 (7·2–8·0) | 49·0% (49·0–52·0) | $7·2 (5·9–8·9) | 28·8% (18·6–40·5) |
| Females with VOICE score >3 only | $43·0 (40·0–45·0) | 27·0% (20·0–34·0) | $8·9 (8·5–9·3) | 54·4% (51·5–57·4) | $6·0 (4·7–7·2) | 31·0% (19·0–40·0) |
| Females with VOICE score >3, and males with more than one sexual partner | $41·0 (39·0–42·0) | 35·0% (30·0–39·0) | $5·4 (5·2–5·7) | 63·4% (60·9–66·0) | $5·3 (4·5–6·2) | 40·0% (30·0–51·0) |
| Females with VOICE score >1 only | $33·0 (32·0–35·0) | 35·8% (30·2–41·2) | $6·4 (6·1–6·7) | 63·0% (60·0–66·0) | $4·3 (3·2–5·5) | 35·0% (26·0–44·0) |
| Females with VOICE score >1, and males with more than one sexual partner | $32·0 (31·0–33·0) | 42·5% (38·3–46·9) | $4·2 (4·0–4·4) | 71·0% (69·0–73·0) | $4·0 (3·3–4·9) | 45·0% (37·0–53·0) |
VOICE score >5 is inclusive of female sex workers. HIV infections averted are compared to scenario of daily oral pre-exposure prophylaxis only among people aged 15–65 years over 10 years of lenacapavir implementation. Prices are in 2021 US$. Values in parentheses show 95% uncertainty intervals representing the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 100 parameter sets. VOICE=Vaginal and Oral Interventions to Control the Epidemic.