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. 2024 Oct 29;15:9348. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-53816-y

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© The Author(s) 2024

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 6 — A An example from a randomly selected posterior tree. The black points indicate reported outbreak sites that occurred between 2019 and 2022, after the latest available genetic data. The green/blue areas created by merged buffers indicate the inferred hotspots. B Distributions of captured new outbreaks by inferred epidemic hotspots based on 1 km-buffers with centres of nodes only (green) or nodes plus outbreak sites (blue). The vertical dashed lines indicate the mean of randomly generated circulating areas with identical buffer numbers as tree nodes (green) or tree nodes plus outbreak sites (blue). C Comparing the re-emergence of outbreaks within inferred hotspots in different locations. Proportions of captured outbreaks were calculated with buffers of two radius distances. The bars show the mean values based on 1000 posterior trees. Error bars indicate 95% credible intervals.