letter

. 2024 Oct 31;82:197. doi: 10.1186/s13690-024-01427-w

Table 2.

Overall community consumption of antibiotics (J01) and antibiotic subclasses in the EU/EEA, 2015–2022: parameter estimates (95% credible intervals (CrI)) based on changepoint analyses of quarterly data (16 EU/EEA countries, Supplementary table S1) and yearly data (28 EU/EEA countries, Supplementary table S1)

	Overall antibiotic consumption (J01)	Penicillins (J01C)	Macrolides, lincosamides & streptogramins (J01F)	Other beta-lactam antibacterials (J01D)
Intercept	16.58 (14.35 ; 18.69)*	17.64 (15.61 ; 19.66)*	7.16 (5.93 ; 8.36)*	7.39 (6.25 ; 8.48)*	2.89 (2.33 ; 3.42)*	3.04 (2.45 ; 3.59)*	1.62 (1.06 ; 2.20)*	2.09 (1.43 ; 2.78)*
Change in intercept	CP1: -4.56 (-5.33 ; -3.82)* CP2: 2.72 (-35.12 ; 40.24)	CP1: -2.77 (-3.60 ; -1.95)* CP2: 3.33 (2.72 ; 3.95)*	CP1: -2.67 (-3.16 ; -2.19)* CP2: 1.57 (-34.87 ; 37.67)	CP1: -1.62 (-1.97 ; -1.28)* CP2: 1.61 (1.34 ; 1.88)*	CP1: -0.89 (-1.13 ; -0.65)* CP2: 0.61 (-29.67 ; 30.33)	CP1: -0.44 (-0.75 ; -0.12)* CP2: 0.88 (0.60 ; 1.17)*	CP1: -0.32 (-0.47 ; -0.18)* CP2: 0.50 (-22.74 ; 24.22)	CP1: -0.49 (-0.74 ; -0.26)* CP2: 0.46 (0.28 ; 0.63)*
Slope	-0.09 (-0.14 ; -0.04)*	-0.17 (-0.32 ; -0.01)*	-0.02 (-0.04 ; 0.003)	-0.01 (-0.08 ; 0.06)	-0.02 (-0.04 ; -0.01)*	-0.06 (-0.10 ; -0.02)*	-0.01 (-0.02 ; -0.01)*	-0.01 (-0.06 ; 0.03)
Change in slope	CP1: 0.55 (0.45 ; 0.65)* CP2: 0.99 (-56.48 ; 58.07)	NI	CP1: 0.28 (0.22 ; 0.34)* CP2: 0.64 (-56.63 ; 57.90)	NI	CP1: 0.12 (0.08 ; 0.16)* CP2: -0.04 (-56.65 ; 56.27)	NI	NI	NI
Seasonality	2.72 (2.08 ; 3.37)*	NI	1.21 (0.91 ; 1.50)*	NI	0.69 (0.47 ; 0.91)*	NI	0.35 (0.18 ; 0.52)*	NI
Change in seasonality	CP1: -1.64 (-2.34 ; -0.91)* CP2: 1.42 (-54.25 ; 57.44)	NI	CP1: -0.89 (-1.27 ; -0.49)* CP2: 0.61 (-55.4 ; 57.09)	NI	NI	NI	CP1: -0.24 (-0.35 ; -0.14)* CP2: 0.35 (-57.66 ; 57.25)	NI
Changepoint	CP1: Between 1st and 2nd quarter of 2020* CP2: Between 3rd and 4th quarter of 2022	CP1: Between 2019 and 2020* CP2: Between 2021 and 2022*	CP1: Between 1st and 2nd quarter of 2020* CP2: Between 3rd and 4th quarter of 2022	CP1: Between 2019 and 2020* CP2: Between 2021 and 2022*	CP1: Between 1st and 2nd quarter of 2020* CP2: Between 3rd and 4th quarter of 2022	CP1: Between 2019 and 2020* CP2: Between 2021 and 2022*	CP1: Between 1st and 2nd quarter of 2020* CP2: Between 3rd and 4th quarter of 2022	CP1: Between 2019 and 2020* CP2: Between 2021 and 2022*

Overall antibiotic consumption (J01)

Penicillins (J01C)

Macrolides, lincosamides & streptogramins (J01F)

Other beta-lactam antibacterials (J01D)

Quarterly data

Yearly data

Quarterly data

Yearly data

Quarterly data

Yearly data

Quarterly data

Yearly data

Intercept

16.58

(14.35 ; 18.69)*

17.64

(15.61 ; 19.66)*

7.16

(5.93 ; 8.36)*

7.39

(6.25 ; 8.48)*

2.89

(2.33 ; 3.42)*

3.04

(2.45 ; 3.59)*

1.62

(1.06 ; 2.20)*

2.09

(1.43 ; 2.78)*

Change in intercept

CP1: -4.56

(-5.33 ; -3.82)*

CP2: 2.72

(-35.12 ; 40.24)

CP1: -2.77

(-3.60 ; -1.95)*

CP2: 3.33

(2.72 ; 3.95)*

CP1: -2.67

(-3.16 ; -2.19)*

CP2: 1.57

(-34.87 ; 37.67)

CP1: -1.62

(-1.97 ; -1.28)*

CP2: 1.61

(1.34 ; 1.88)*

CP1: -0.89

(-1.13 ; -0.65)*

CP2: 0.61

(-29.67 ; 30.33)

CP1: -0.44

(-0.75 ; -0.12)*

CP2: 0.88

(0.60 ; 1.17)*

CP1: -0.32

(-0.47 ; -0.18)*

CP2: 0.50

(-22.74 ; 24.22)

CP1: -0.49

(-0.74 ; -0.26)*

CP2: 0.46

(0.28 ; 0.63)*

Slope

-0.09

(-0.14 ; -0.04)*

-0.17

(-0.32 ; -0.01)*

-0.02

(-0.04 ; 0.003)

-0.01

(-0.08 ; 0.06)

-0.02

(-0.04 ; -0.01)*

-0.06

(-0.10 ; -0.02)*

-0.01

(-0.02 ; -0.01)*

-0.01

(-0.06 ; 0.03)

Change in slope

CP1: 0.55

(0.45 ; 0.65)*

CP2: 0.99

(-56.48 ; 58.07)

CP1: 0.28

(0.22 ; 0.34)*

CP2: 0.64

(-56.63 ; 57.90)

CP1: 0.12

(0.08 ; 0.16)*

CP2: -0.04

(-56.65 ; 56.27)

Seasonality

2.72

(2.08 ; 3.37)*

1.21

(0.91 ; 1.50)*

0.69

(0.47 ; 0.91)*

0.35

(0.18 ; 0.52)*

Change in seasonality

CP1: -1.64

(-2.34 ; -0.91)*

CP2: 1.42

(-54.25 ; 57.44)

CP1: -0.89

(-1.27 ; -0.49)*

CP2: 0.61

(-55.4 ; 57.09)

CP1: -0.24

(-0.35 ; -0.14)*

CP2: 0.35

(-57.66 ; 57.25)

Changepoint

CP1: Between 1st and 2nd quarter of 2020*

CP2: Between 3rd and 4th quarter of 2022

CP1: Between 2019 and 2020*

CP2: Between 2021 and 2022*

CP1: Between 1st and 2nd quarter of 2020*

CP2: Between 3rd and 4th quarter of 2022

CP1: Between 2019 and 2020*

CP2: Between 2021 and 2022*

CP1: Between 1st and 2nd quarter of 2020*

CP2: Between 3rd and 4th quarter of 2022

CP1: Between 2019 and 2020*

CP2: Between 2021 and 2022*

CP1: Between 1st and 2nd quarter of 2020*

CP2: Between 3rd and 4th quarter of 2022

CP1: Between 2019 and 2020*

CP2: Between 2021 and 2022*

CP: changepoint, NI: not included, Intercept: consumption in 2015; Change in intercept: sudden increase/decrease in consumption at the changepoint; Slope: gradual increase/decrease in consumption per quarter/year before the first change-point; Change in slope: difference in slope after versus before the changepoint; Seasonality: amplitude describing the magnitude of the upward winter and downward summer peak; Change in seasonality: increase/decrease in the amplitude describing the magnitude of the upward winter and downward summer peak; Changepoint: timing of the changepoint; *: significant at 5% confidence level. Note that the estimates from the non-linear changepoint mixed model are not weighted by population size.