Population health benefits of a blood-based test in lung cancer screening. A, Care pathway reflecting the recommended standard of care for lung cancer screening with LDCT that is received by 6%–10% of eligible individuals annually, as well as potential pathway employing initial blood-based test and follow-on events. B, The predicted number of cancers detected by screening scenario: LDCT alone (“base case”); LDCT + low test uptake; LDCT + high test uptake. C, Predicted cancers diagnosed at stage I versus Stage IV by screening scenario: LDCT alone (“base case”); LDCT + low test uptake; LDCT + high test uptake. D, Predicted decrease in lung cancer deaths represented by screening scenario: LDCT alone (“base case”); LDCT + low test uptake; LDCT + high test uptake. E, Simulated comparison of the predicted number needed to scan with LDCT to detect one lung cancer: LDCT alone (“base case”); LDCT + low test uptake; LDCT + high test uptake. Population-level modeling demonstrates significant health benefits when a blood-based test is available as an alternative for lung cancer screening.