Fig. 2. Excess mortality following a TC.

Impulse response of mortality rates per 1 ms⁻¹ of state-level wind speed incidence. a, Estimated excess all-cause mortality by month before and after a TC. Green line shows monthly coefficients (equation (8)); the shaded area represents 95% confidence intervals. The red dashed line shows a quadratic fit to lag coefficients 0–172: excess mortality = 0.0237 + 0.000535x − 0.0000039x², where x is the time since landfall in months. b–f, Cumulative excess mortality and 95% confidence intervals (accounting for covariances) from estimated impulse responses after a TC. b, Green line shows cumulative effect of coefficients in a, and the shaded area represents the 95% confidence interval. Leads (negative months) and orange lines are negative exposure controls. Orange dashed lines are means in the four randomization-based placebo experiments. c–f, Same as b, but estimated separately by age (c), race (d), official cause of death (e) and average TC incidence (f). f, Low average incidence represents the quartile of states with lowest non-zero average TC incidence; high average incidence represents the top three quartiles. Joint significance test of equality between high and low incidence responses for months 1–240 has P = 0.0082 (two-sided F-test; Extended Data Fig. 6c shows quartiles separately).