Table 1.
Bayesian model parameter estimation
| Parameter | Description | Prior Distribution | Posterior Statistics | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | SD | P2.5 | P97.5 | |||
| θ | Related to the time of the infection source’s emergence, with the maximum density at 0.6667 (8/12) based on the value of dayselapse | Beta(2.7716,1.5905) | 0.5638 | 0.0988 | 0.3576 | 0.7420 |
|
Related to the duration of the infection source, with the maximum density at 0.2857 (2/7) based on the value of duraI0 | Beta(1.1682,2.009) | 0.3343 | 0.1294 | 0.1084 | 0.5818 |
|
Daily Contact Time Between Infection Source and Secondary Cases (minutes), following the Kernel Distribution in Sect. 2.3 |
Kernel Smoothing Function: normal Bandwidth = 7.1687 |
106.76 | 80.50 | 11.2826 | 260.8161 |
| b | Related to infectivity, with the maximum density at 0.5331 according to the same parameter in the ABM | N(0.5331,0.2) | 0.5675 | 0.1914 | 0.1784 | 0.9697 |