Table 2.
Performance estimates of the sphingolipid panel, PSA density, % positive core biopsy and the model that combines all three at different risk strata for predicting biopsy upgrade for men on AS in the Canary PASS and the combined MDACC Cohort (Testing Set #1 and #2)
| Canary PASS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | Strata | # of Events |
# of Patients |
Biopsy Upgrade, N (%) | No Biopsy Upgrade, N (%) | Median time to Upgrade, Months (IQR) |
P- value† |
Hazard Ratio (95% CI) |
| Combined | High-Risk | 98 | 544 | 42 (23.2) | 139 (76.8) | 27.0 (16.5–39.6) | 0.0017 | 3.17 (1.84–5.46) |
| Intermediate-Risk | 37 (20.3) | 145 (79.7) | 33.1 (19.4–47.9) | 2.05 (1.18–3.58) | ||||
| Low-Risk | 19 (10.5) | 162 (89.5) | 35.9 (24.6–58.9) | reference | ||||
| Sphingolipid Panel | High-Risk | 98 | 544 | 45 (24.9) | 136 (75.1) | 28.9 (17.5–42.8) | 0.0017 | 1.84 (1.11–3.07) |
| Intermediate-Risk | 31 (17) | 151 (83) | 28.3 (18.4–36.8) | 1.28 (0.74–2.22) | ||||
| Low-Risk | 22 (12.2) | 159 (87.8) | 35.9 (24.6–46.8) | reference | ||||
| PSA Density | High-Risk | 98 | 544 | 38 (21.0) | 143 (79.0) | 24.5 (17.9–41.6) | 0.218 | 1.91 (1.18–3.10) |
| Intermediate-Risk | 31 (17.0) | 151 (83.0) | 31.2 (18.6–42.7) | 1.15 (0.69–1.91) | ||||
| Low-Risk | 29 (16.0) | 152 (84.0) | 30.6 (18.1–41.0) | reference | ||||
| % Core Biopsy | High-Risk | 98 | 544 | 34 (18.8) | 147 (81.2) | 30.4 (17.5–41.6) | 0.494 | 2.27 (1.37–3.74) |
| Intermediate-Risk | 35 (19.2) | 147 (80.8) | 26.5 (17.9–38.4) | 1.33 (0.81–2.19) | ||||
| Low-Risk | 29 (16.0) | 152 (84.0) | 33.7 (24.7–68.6) | reference | ||||
| MDACC AS (Set #1 and Set #2 [Vykoukal et al. 2020]) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | Strata |
# of
Events |
# of
Patients |
Biopsy Upgrade, N (%) | No Biopsy Upgrade, N (%) |
Median time to Upgrade, Months (IQR) |
P-
value† |
Hazard Ratio
(95% CI) |
| Combined | High-Risk | 102 | 536 | 51 (32.9) | 104 (67.1) | 24.0 (12.0–42.0) | < 0.0001 | 3.65 (2.21–6.02) |
| Intermediate-Risk | 29 (15.1) | 163 (84.9) | 24.0 (12.0-44.5) | 1.33 (0.77–2.32) | ||||
| Low-Risk | 22 (11.6) | 167 (88.4) | 24.0 (12.0-43.5) | reference | ||||
| Sphingolipid Panel | High-Risk | 131 | 707 | 55 (22.7) | 187 (77.3) | 24.0 (12.0–42.0) | 0.014 | 1.78 (1.17–2.72) |
| Intermediate-Risk | 41 (18.9) | 176 (81.1) | 24.0 (12.0-37.1) | 1.31 (0.83–2.05) | ||||
| Low-Risk | 35 (14.1) | 213 (85.9) | 24.0 (12.0–36.0) | reference | ||||
| PSA Density | High-Risk | 127 | 642 | 54 (27.3) | 144 (72.7) | 24.0 (12.0-36.2) | 0.001 | 2.31 (1.51–3.53) |
| Intermediate-Risk | 37 (18.3) | 165 (81.7) | 24.0 (12.0–42.0) | 1.35 (0.85–2.13) | ||||
| Low-Risk | 36 (14.9) | 206 (85.1) | 24.0 (12.0-46.5) | reference | ||||
| % Core Biopsy | High-Risk | 102 | 538 | 26 (31) | 58 (69) | 25.0 (12.0-44.6) | 0.001 | 2.56 (1.55–4.23) |
| Intermediate-Risk | 39 (19.8) | 158 (80.2) | 24.3 (12.0–42.0) | 1.49 (0.95–2.34) | ||||
| Low-Risk | 37 (14.4) | 220 (85.6) | 16.5 (12.0–42.0) | reference | ||||
† χ2 test for trend 2-sided p-value