Table 3.
Model values and validation targets for UK analyses
| Parameter | Validation target (per million or as %) | Calibrated model output (per million or as %) | Validation source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline characteristics | |||
| % Female in total population | 50.60 | 50.59 | UK ONS32 |
| Average age of total population (yr) | 40.30 | 40.61 | |
| CKD population in UK | |||
| Proportion of CKD stage 1–2 in UK population | 7.7% | 7.0% | NHS 201616 |
| Proportion of CKD Stage 3–5 in UK population | 5.1% | 5.2% | |
| RRT | |||
| Median age for patients starting dialysis or getting transplant (yr) | 63.70 | 66.01 | UK Renal Registry 202215 |
| Mean eGFR at start of dialysis | 6.90 | 6.83 | |
| Number of new transplants/yr (per million) | 47.9 | 49 | NHS Blood and Transplant; 3,207 (209/2020)33 |
| Number of new dialysis/yr (per million) | 131 | 122 | UK Renal Registry 202215 |
| AKI | |||
| AKI events in population (CKD and non-CKD) (per million) | 5300 to 20,700 | 16,498 | UK Kidney Association34 |
| % AKI events in patients with CKD | 32.4% | 40.85% | Argyropoulos 201935 |
| 55% | Abdalrahim 202036 | ||
| AKI deaths/yr for population (CKD and non-CKD) (per million) | 1074 to 3582 | 2803 | NHS England37; 100,000 deaths per year (range: 72k–240k) |
| Events | |||
| Average stroke events/yr in population (per million) | 1040–1500 | 1067 | Lee et al., 2011;38 Stroke Association39 |
| Average MIs/yr in population (per million) | 1492 | 1580 | BHF 2022;20 100,000/yr |
| Mortality | |||
| Mortality (%) in population (CKD and non-CKD) over 10 yrs | 1.04% | 1.06% | UK ONS32 |
AKI, acute kidney foundation; BHF, British Heart Foundation; CKD, chronic kidney disease; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; HD, hemodialysis; HHF, hypotensive heart foundation; HSE, Health Survey of England; MI, myocardial infarction; NHS, National Health Service; ONS, Office for National Statistics; PD, peritoneal dialysis; RRT, renal replacement therapy.