Table 4.
Cross-validation of IMPACT CKD to published models
| Source | Estimated prevalence (2022) | Projected prevalence (2023) | Projected prevalence (2027) | Projected prevalence (2032) | Projected prevalence (2033) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prevalence of CKDa (%) | |||||
| IMPACT CKDb | 8.3 M (42% CKD 3–5) | 8.4 M (44% CKD 3–5) | 8.7 M (46% CKD 3–5) | 8.9 M (48% CKD 3–5) | NA |
| UK Kidney Research 2023c | NA | 7.2 M (45% CKD 3–5) | NA | NA | 7.6 M (51% CKD 3–5) |
| Inside CKDd | 9.2 M (60% CKD 3–5) | NA | 9.3 M (59% CKD 3–5) | NA | NA |
| Prevalence of patients on dialysis | |||||
| IMPACT CKDb | 33,098 | 36,850 | 51,523 | 58,022 | NA |
| UK Kidney Research 2023c,e | 32,792 | 33,310 | Constrained: 30,334 Unconstrained: 55,873 |
Constrained: 33,838 Unconstrained: 119,359 |
Constrained: 33,845 Unconstrained: 142,920 |
| Inside CKDd | 28,963 | 29,265 | 35,290 | NA | NA |
| Annual number of new kidney transplants | |||||
| IMPACT CKDb | NA | 3149 | 3216 | 3350 | NA |
| UK Kidney Research 2023c,e | 2879 | 2976 | Constrained: 3171 Unconstrained: 5139 |
Constrained: 3484 Unconstrained: 10,084 |
Constrained: 3615 Unconstrained: 11,665 |
| Prevalence of kidney transplant recipients | |||||
| IMPACT CKDb | 40,267 | 42,478 | 52,461 | 63,918 | NA |
| Inside CKDd | 42,587 | 42,462 | 43,189 | NA | NA |
| Annual prevalence of overall RRT (total prevalence of dialysis and new kidney transplant) | |||||
| IMPACT CKDb | 33,098 | 39,999 | 54,739 | 61,372 | NA |
| UK Kidney Research 2023c,e | 32,800 | 33,310 | Constrained: 34,900 Unconstrained: 61,000 |
Constrained: 37,300 Unconstrained: 129,400 |
Constrained: 37,460 Unconstrained: 154,585 |
| Prevalence of overall RRT patients (Total prevalence of dialysis and total prevalence of kidney transplant) | |||||
| IMPACT CKDb | 73,365 | 79,328 | 103,984 | 121,940 | NA |
| Inside CKDd | 71,549 | 71,728 | 78,479 | NA | NA |
CKD, chronic kidney disease; M, million; NA, not available; RRT, renal replacement therapy; UK, United Kingdom.
Prevalence of CKD includes Stages 1-5 and those on RRT.
The IMPACT CKD model projected the prevalence of CKD in the UK from 2022 to 2032.
The Kidney Research UK projected the prevalence of CKD in the UK from 2023 to 2032. In the absence of explicitly reported values, data was extracted from figures using DigitizeIt software (version 2.5.3, I. Bormann, Germany).
The Inside CKD model projected the prevalence of CKD in the UK from 2022 to 2027.
The constrained approach for projecting RRT burden reflected historic trends in numbers for a maximized (at capacity) health system. The unconstrained approach using historical transition probabilities predicted exponential increases in the number of adults needing RRT.