Table 1.
Lake Erie hypoxic extent and required TP load reductions under current conditions and three future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP2: middle of the road; SSP1: sustainable development; SSP5: no additional climate policy) during midcentury (2030–2059) and late century (2060–2099)
| Projected hypoxic area with a 7% load reduction from 2008 | Percent reduction from 2008 needed for hypoxia <4,000 km2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 80% of the time | Mean | 80% of the time | ||
| Climate mitigation pathway | Current climate | 4,000 | 5,800 | 8% | 35% |
| SSP2 | Midcentury | 5,300 | 7,100 | 27% | 55% |
| Late century | 6,000 | 7,900 | 39% | 68% | |
| SSP1 | Midcentury | 4,900 | 6,800 | 22% | 51% |
| Late century | 5,200 | 7,100 | 26% | 55% | |
| SSP5 | Midcentury | 5,500 | 7,400 | 31% | 60% |
| Late century | 7,500 | 9,400 | 62% | 91% | |