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. 2024 Nov 14;15:9562. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-53645-z

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© The Author(s) 2024

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 4 — a Estimated offset achievement ratio for project types for which we found relevant studies. b Project-level estimates extracted from relevant studies for individual projects. Only the first authors are mentioned in the study section for visualisation purposes. Two studies excluded that only showed upper-bound estimates refs. ^18,35 and two studies that could not be integrated into the framework^20,45; see Supplementary Table 7 for detailed exclusion reasons. Estimated average offset achievement ratios in (a) are the weighted average of projects’ OAR based on the issued credits (i.e. projects that issued more credits are weighted more). Each dot in (b) represents one project-level OAR, with the colours corresponding to the underlying studies. Confidence intervals in (a) are the weighted variance (by credit issuance) based on the individual estimates in (b), whereas the centre of the error bar represents the weighted average for each project type. The exact issued credits and the OAR for each project can be found in the supplementary data. ACR refers to the American Carbon Registry, CAR to Climate Action Reserve, CDM to Clean Development Mechanism, VCS to Voluntary Carbon Standard, GS to Gold Standard, JI to Joint Implementation and IFM to Improved Forest Management.