Table 1.
Characteristics of the studies included in the systematic review and meta‐analysis
| Name of the study, author | Country | Time of follow‐up (years/months) | Exclusion criteria | Sample size (final sample) | Baseline age in years; mean (SD) or % | % women | Outcome; cut point depressive cases | n incident cases | Cumulative incidence (cI) % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Aichi Gerontological Evaluation Study (AGES) project; 1. Misawa et al. (2019) |
Japan | 4 Y | Not independently undertaking walking, bathing, or toilet activities in either W1 + 2; mental illness or depression W1, no record for depression questions W2 | 3464 | Young‐old age group (65–74): 74.3%; old‐old (75 or more): 25.7% | 47.2 | GDS‐15; ≥5 | 490 | 14.15 |
|
Australian Longitudinal Study of Women's Health (ALSWH); 2. Cations et al. (2021) |
Australia | 15 Y | Not informed | 9443 | 72.6 (1.5) | 100 |
5‐item mental health subscale of the MOS SF 36‐W1; Goldberg Anxiety and Depression Scale |
2213 | 23.43 |
|
China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS); 3. Jing et al. (2020) |
China | 2 Y | Persons aged between 45 and 59 Y | 5108 | 68.02 (6.58) | 49.34 | CES‐D‐10; ≥ 10 | 547 | 10.70 |
|
Korean Longitudinal Study on Cognitive Aging and Dementia (KLOSCAD); 4. Oh et al. (2020) |
South Korea | 3.3 Y | NR | 3955 | 70.21 (6.90) | 55.5 | MINI‐K | 358 † |
9.05 † 21.70 ‡ (95% CI 19.29–24.12) |
|
Living Profiles of Older People Survey (LPOPS) 5. Roh et al. (2015a) |
Korea | 3 Y | Diagnosed with depression | 6647 | 73.3 (6.2) | 55.85 | SGDS‐K 15; ≥8 | 1443 | 20.75 |
| 6. Roh et al. (2015a) | Korea | 3 Y | No adult children, living with adult children, cognitive imp. at either W, and depression at baseline | 4398 | 69.9 (5.7) | 52.6 | SGDS‐K 15; ≥8 | 883 | 20.1 |
| 7. Jin et al. (2020) | Korea | 3 Y | Visual, hearing, language, cognitive imp. and depression at baseline | 6954 | 69.8 (6.1) | 55.5 | SGDS‐K 15; ≥8 | 1504 | 21.62 § |
|
National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology Study of Geriatric Syndromes (NCGG‐SGS); 8. Shimada et al. (2020) |
Japan | 2,5 Y | History of stroke, PD, AD, decline BADL, MMSE scores <18, those certified LTCIS | 1792 | 70.1 (6.3) | 46.4 | GDS‐15; ≥6 | 247 |
13,78 55.1 ‡ (CI 95% 48.7–62.5) |
|
National Free Physical Examination Program in the Hangu Health Center of Tianjin; 9. Chen et al.(2019) |
China | 1 Y | Incomplete date for DS; unable testing: handgrip strength/4‐m walking/measurement of body composition/to communicate with interviewers | 691 | 67.5 (5.7) | 56 | GDS 30; ≥11 | 83 | 12 |
|
Obu Study of Health Promotion for the Elderly’ (OSHPE); 10. Makizako et al. (2015) |
Japan | 15 m | History of Parkinson's disease, stroke, depression, Alzheimer's disease, MMSE <18 or depressive symptoms at baseline | 3.025 | 71.4 (5.1) | 50,3 | GDS 15; ≥6 | 226 | 7.47 |
| 11. Uemura et al. (2018) | Japan | 15 m | History of PD, depression, AD, <18 on MMSE, disability (BADL), DS at baseline | 3106 | 71.5 (5.2) | 49.1 | GDS 15; ≥6 | 239 | 7.69 |
| 12. Tsutsumimoto et al. (2017) | Japan | 15 m | Needing support or care by the Japanese Public LTCIS (care level ≥3/5) | 3503 | 71.4 (5.2) | 50.3 | GDS 15; ≥6 | 232 | 6.62 |
| 13. Tsutsumimoto et al. (2018) | Japan | 4 Y | AD, PD, depression; functional disability; need for support or care as result of disability; MMSE ≤18; and DS | 2430 | 71 (4.7) | 51.7 | GDS 15; ≥6 | 131 |
5.39 |
|
Progetto Veneto Anziani (Pro.V.A.); 14. De Rui et al. (2017) |
Italy | 4.4 Y | Participants with cognitive imp., depression, severe neurological disease at baseline | 891 | For groups: improved: 70,9 (3.69); stable: 71.2 (5.2); worsened: 73.5 (6.1) | 53.4 | GDS 30; ≥11 | 167 | 18.74 |
| 15. Trevisan et al. (2018) | Italy | 4.4 Y | Participants with severe cognitive imp. | 2104 | 74.2 (6.8) | 62.7 | GDS 30; >10 | 229 | 10.9 |
| 16. Veronese et al. (2017b) | Italy | 4 Y | Participants with severe cognitive imp. | 970 | 72.5 (6) | 54.6 | GDS 30; >10 | 207 | 21.34 § |
|
Program 70 y más; 17. Bojorquez‐Chapela et al. (2012) |
Mexico | 11 m | Cognitive imp., GDS ≥6 first W; failed to answer the questionnaires | 2661 | Group without DS: 69.49; Group with DS: 69.20 | Without DS: 44.92; with DS: 58.68 | GDS 15; ≥6 | 645 | 24.23 |
|
Protocolos del Grupo de Investigación em Demencias 10/66; 18. Ortiz et al.(2017) |
Mexico | 3 Y | Depression in the initial evaluation | 1512 |
Groups with incident depression: 65–69 y: 25.1%; 70‐74 y: 32.6%; 75–79 y: 22.5%; 80+ y: 19.8% |
65.21 | GMS‐AGECAT; ICD 10th edition; DSM‐IV; EURO‐D | 227 | 15.01 |
|
Québec Longitudinal Study on Nutrition and Aging (NuAge); 19. Gougeon et al. (2014) |
Canada | 3 Y | Depression or ADMU at baseline, missing/invalid GDS scores or dietary information at baseline or at all three FUA | 1358 | 74 (4) | 50.4 | GDS 30; ≥11 | 170 | 12.51 |
|
Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE); 20. Conde‐Sala et al. (2019) |
13 countries and Israel | 2 Y | Not informed | 23 201 | 65–74 years: 46.4; ≥75 years: 3.6% | 56.9 | EURO‐D 12 items; ≥4 | 2862 |
12.33 6.62 ‡ (99.9% CI: 6.61–6.63) |
|
The 3C Study Group; 21. Scali et al. (2010) |
France | 2, 4 Y | Dementia (diagnosed using DSM‐IV revised criteria) | 4069 (around 3178 have no DS at baseline) | 73.6 (5) | All | CES‐D 20; ≥23 | NR | 17.4% § |
| 22. Godin et al. (2012) | France | 4, 8, 10 Y | No data on depression, blood pressure, or BMI available. No follow‐up data | 4 years‐3090; 8 years‐2359; 10 years‐ 1744 | 73.5 (4.8) | 60 | CES‐D Scale 20; 17 point score cutoff for men, 23 for women | 478 | 15.47 |
| 23. Carriére et al. (2013) | France | Median 9 Y | Prevalent DS or using antidepressants at baseline; visual impairment | 2307 | 65–69: 27.6; 70–74: 35.6; 75–80: 24.5; 80+: 12.3 | 54.3 |
MINI; CES‐D 20, ≥16 (severity of DS) |
521 | 22.58 |
| 24. Potvin et al. (2013) | France | 10 Y | Dementia | 3390 | Groups: no incident depression: 72.9 (4.7); incident depression: 73.5 (4.8) | 72.5 | CES‐D 20; >16 (at least one follow‐up) | 491 | 14.46 |
|
The Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging; 25. Nascimento et al. (2015) |
Brazil | 10 Y | Not informed | 701 | 67.4 (6.1) | 57.2 | GHQ‐12; ≥ 5 | 256 |
36.51 4.6% |
|
The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (The ELSA study); 26. Veronese et al. (2017a) |
England | 2 Y | Depressed at baseline; no data regarding frailty criteria and DS | 4077 | 70.9 (range 60–90) | 53 | CES‐D 8; ≥4 | 360 | 8.83 |
|
The Gospel Oak Project VII; 27. Prince et al. (1998) |
England | 1 Y | Not informed | 451 | 75 (8) | 61 | SHORT‐CARE | 46 | 10.19 |
|
The HEIJO‐KYO cohort; 28. Obayashi et al. (2018a) |
Japan | Median: 23 m | DS or a diagnosis of depression and ADMU at baseline | 866 | 71.5 (6.9) | 52 | GDS 15; ≥6 | 75 | 8.66 |
| 29. Obayashi et al. (2018b) | Japan | Median: 2 Y | DS and ADMU at baseline | 863 | 71.5 (7) | 52.1 | GDS 15; ≥6 | 73 | 8.45 |
|
The JAGES (Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study); 30. Honjo et al. (2018) |
Japan | Mean: 3 Y (2.6 Y) | Limitations in ADL; with DS at baseline | 42 169 | Women: 72.7 (5.5), men: 72.6 (5,5) | 53.4 | GDS 15; ≥5 | 5257 | 12.46 |
| 31. Tani et al. (2016) | Japan | Median: 2.6 Y | Missing responses for both DS or reporting DS at baseline | 10 458 | 65–74: 65.3%; ≥75: 34.7% | 43.4 | GDS 15; ≥5 | 1435 | 13.85 § |
|
32. Koga et al. (2020) |
Japan | 3 Y | Dependent (ADL) and those receiving Public LTCIB | 1737 | 65–69: 33.2%; 70–74: 30.2%; 75–79: 22.5%; 80–84: 10.8; ≥85: 3.3% | 56.6 | GDS 15; ≥5 | 121 | 6.97 |
|
The Kurabuchi Study; 33. Sugai et al. (2018) |
Japan | 2 Y | Hospitalised or institutionalised; GDS≥2 at baseline; insufficient data | 548 | Age: 65–69: 24.1; 70–74: 31.9; 75–79: 23.9; 80–84: 17.3; ≥85: 7.3 | 57.11 | GDS 5; ≥2 in baseline; GDS 15; ≥6 | 65 | 11.86 |
|
The Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA); 34. Sanders et al. (2012) |
Netherlands | 16 Y | NR | 1928 |
Total: 68.9 (8.5) Women: 69 (8.3), men 70.6 (8.7) |
51.03 | CES‐D 20; ≥ 16 | 469 | 24 |
|
The Niigata Elderly study; 35. Hanindriyo et al. (2018) |
Japan | 3 Y | Lack of data, having a GHQ‐30 >6 or being regular antidepressant users | 212 | 70 years | 39,16 | GHQ‐30; ≥7 | 27 | 12.73 |
|
Zhejiang Major Public Health Surveillance Program (ZPHS); 36. |
China | 1 Y | Dysaudia, cognitive imp. /conditions making difficult to complete the questionnaire/incomplete information; baseline DS | 8527 | 70.4 (7.3) | 49.8 | PHQ‐9, cutoff score of≥5 | 732 | 8.58 |
|
Zutphen Elderly Study; 37. Giltay et al. (2006) |
Netherlands | 10 Y ¶ | Missing data on dispositional optimism or risk factors | 229 | 70.8 (4.6) | Not included women | SDS; ≥50 | 75 | 32.75 |
| 38. Schoevers et al. (2000) | Netherlands | 3 Y | NR | 2244 | 65–69: 20.6; 70–74: 24; 75–79: 25.9; 80–86: 29.4 | 62.4 | GMS‐AGECAT; ≥3 | 216 | 9.62 § |
| 39. Koizumi et al. (2005) | Japan | 1 Y | Cognitive Imp (MMSE <18) | 475 | FU group: 70–74: 51.2; age ≥ 75 years: 48.8 | FU group: 49.9 | GDS 30; ≥ 11 | 55 | 11.6 |
| 40. Harris et al. (2006) | England | 2 Y | Terminal illness or dementia, vision problems, frailty, and living in a nursing home | 945 | Onset DS: 65–69: 17.03, 70–74: 30.37, 75–79: 24.44, 80–84: 17.14, 85+: 11 | 41.4 | GDS‐15 ≤5 at baseline now, >5 at FU | 79 | 8.36 |
| 41. Lyness et al. (2009) | USA | 4 Y | Current depression at the time of study intake | 405 at 1 Y FU; 338 at 2 Y; 259 at 3 Y; 54 at 4 Y | 75.6 (6.7) | 60 (in 1 Y) | SCID | 33 | MDD: ‡ , § , †† 5.3 |
| 42. Weiss et al. (2009) | USA | 22 m | NR | 512 | 78.56 (7.22) | 76 | MINI‐MDE and scored based on DSM‐IV criteria | 122 | 13 ‡‡ |
| 43. Chan et al. (2012) | China | 2 Y | Dementia; bilateral hip replacements or unable to walk independently | 2630 | 71.7 (4.7) | 40 | GDS 15; ≥ 8 | 105 | 4.3 § |
| 44. Yang et al. (2015) | Taiwan | 4 Y | DS; dementia or cognitive imp. | 1467 | Aged 65–74: 49.1; ≥75: 50.9 | 42.7 | CES‐D 10; ≥ 10 | 215 | 14.65 |
| 45. Yoshida et al. (2015) | Japan | 3 Y | DS at baseline | 680 | Groups‐no DS: 72.6 (5.3); DS: 73.3 (5.7) | 57.2 | GDS 15; ≥6 | 115 | 16.9 |
| 46. Brown et al. (2020) | Australia | 9 m | Significant cognitive imp. and patients returning to residential aged care institutions | 205 | 78.38 (7.68) | 57 | GDS 15; ≥7 | 37 | 18.04 |
Abbreviations: cI, cumulative incidence; CI 95%, confidence interval; NR, not reported; W, wave; MOS SF 36, MOS Short Form 36‐item Health Survey; GDS, Geriatric Depression Scale; CES‐D, Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale; MINI, Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview; SSD, subsyndromal symptomatic depression; mDD, minor depressive disorder; MDD, major depressive disorder; PD, Parkinson disease; AD, Alzheimer disease or dementia; MMSE, Mini Mental State Examination; BADL, basic activities of daily living; LTCIS, long‐term care insurance system; DS, depressive symptoms; frailty status: PF, physical frailty; cognitive imp., cognitive impairment; SF, social frailty; GMS‐AGECAT, geriatric mental state‐automatic geriatric examination for computer‐assisted taxonomy; ADMU, antidepressants medication use; FUA, follow‐up assessments; SDS, Zung Self‐Rating Depression Scale; MDE, major depressive episode; GHQ, version of the General Health Questionnaire; BDI, Beck Depression Inventory; SCID, Structured clinical interview for DSM (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders); HDS, Hamilton depressive scale; RCI, residential care institution.
Subsyndromal symptomatic depression + major depressive disorder + minor depression incident cases.
Incidence ratio per 1000 people years (CI 95%).
Value reported in the article, but divergent in the manual calculation: Jin, 2020; Scali, 2011; Tani, 2016; Schoevers, 2000‐elderly with neurotic depressive syndrome; for the purpose of our article, psychotic depressive syndrome was excluded from the calculation; Lyness, 2009‐the sample size at risk was not well described in the paper for each wave; Chan, 2012‐the number of elderly people with depressive symptoms at baseline were excluded from the calculation.
Follow‐up time inferred by the authors.
Only major depressive disorder.
Major and minor depression.