Table 2:

Estimates of population tuberculosis incidence attributable to incarceration in 2019

	Incidence rate ratio for observed vs counterfactual (95% UI)	Excess cases per 100 000 person-years relative to counterfactual (95% UI)	Absolute excess cases relative to counterfactual (95% UI)	Transmission population attributable fraction (95% UI)
Argentina	1·06 (1·04–1·16)	1·5 (1·0–3·9)	506 (344–1344)	8·4% (6·0–18·6)
Brazil	1·44 (1·32–1·59)	14·1 (10·9–18·4)	23 497 (18 160–30 739)	36·9% (29·5–45·1)
Colombia	1·23 (1·13–1·42)	6·0 (3·4–10·6)	2337 (1338–4135)	21·8% (14·1–34·7)
El Salvador	2·34 (2·03–2·69)	32·2 (25·5–41·3)	1489 (1178–1907)	58·1% (51·6–64·1)
Mexico	1·06 (1·04–1·09)	1·3 (0·8–2·1)	1180 (740–1957)	7·5% (4·8–11·6)
Peru	1·21 (1·13–1·34)	20·6 (12·6–33·0)	4922 (3028–7899)	23·3% (16·7–34·4)

All estimates are at the population level among individuals aged 15 years and older. Incidence rate ratios and excess burden estimates were obtained from comparing incident tuberculosis cases in 2019 between the observed scenario of the historical rise in incarceration and the counterfactual scenario of no change in incarceration prevalence since 1990. The transmission population attributable fraction in 2019 was estimated using a scenario where incarceration prevalence was reduced to zero by 2009. UI=uncertainty interval.