Table 3.
Fitting and predicting accuracy test results of typical and proposed GM(1,1) models: Eqs. (24) and (25).
| k | Year | True value | Typical GM(1,1) | OB-WMSE-GM(1,1) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calculated value | AE | APE (%) | Calculated value | AE | APE (%) | |||
| 1 | 1996 | 3.280000 | 3.280000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 3.280000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2 | 1997 | 5.480000 | 4.819230 | 0.660770 | 12.057856 | 5.533047 | 0.053047 | 0.968017 |
| 3 | 1998 | 10.070000 | 8.370397 | 1.699603 | 16.877885 | 9.699805 | 0.370195 | 3.676215 |
| 4 | 1999 | 17.700000 | 14.538329 | 3.161671 | 17.862546 | 17.004413 | 0.695587 | 3.929873 |
| 5 | 2000 | 29.730000 | 25.251254 | 4.478746 | 15.064736 | 29.809882 | 0.079882 | 0.268691 |
| 6 | 2001 | 49.390000 | 43.858260 | 5.531740 | 11.200121 | 52.258733 | 2.868733 | 5.808328 |
| 7 | 2002 | 92.670000 | 76.176295 | 16.493705 | 17.798322 | 91.613084 | 1.056916 | 1.140516 |
| 8 | 2003 | 162.230000 | 132.308668 | 29.921332 | 18.443773 | 160.603914 | 1.626086 | 1.002333 |
| 9 | 2004 | 280.860000 | 229.803555 | 51.056445 | 18.178610 | 281.549493 | 0.689493 | 0.245493 |
| 10 | 2005 | 513.400000 | 399.139943 | 114.260057 | 22.255562 | 493.575249 | 19.824751 | 3.861463 |