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. 2005 Jun 28;102(28):9984–9989. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0408526102

Table 1. Base-case values for model parameters.

Parameter description Value
Production rate 10 gallons per cow per day
Silo size 50,000 gallons
Silos per processing line 1
Time between silo cleanings 72 hr
Speed of distribution channel 80% of milk purchased within 48 hr
Consumers per gallon of milk 4
Time to consume 1 gallon of milk 84 hr
Dose—response probit slope 4.34
Adult ID50 1 μg
Child ID50 0.43 μg
Median incubation (adult and child) 48 hr
Dispersal factor of incubation 1.5
Number of symptomatics until detection 100
Time to detect attack is milkborne 24 hr
Testing-detection limit (mouse, ELISA) 60.6 ng/gallon, 303 ng/gallon
Testing-time delay (mouse, ELISA) 48 hr, 3 hr
Fraction of toxin not inactivated by pasteurization 0.316
Fraction of milk consumers who are children 0.25
Fraction of milk consumed by children 0.4