Table 2. Sensitivity analysis for 10 parameters in the no-testing case.

	Release size
Case description	0.1 g	1 g	10 g	100 g	1 kg
Base case	1.7 × 103	3.2 × 104	1.2 × 105	1.6 × 105	1.7 × 105
Time between silo cleanings = 48 hr	2.0 × 103	3.5 × 104	1.2 × 105	1.5 × 105	1.5 × 105
Silo size = 100,000 gallons	2.1 × 102	3.2 × 104	1.6 × 105	2.7 × 105	3.0 × 105
Silos per processing line = 4	4.4 × 101	2.7 × 104	1.9 × 105	4.5 × 105	5.3 × 105
Inactivation by pasteurization = 0.99	6.6 × 10-11	5.0	1.3 × 104	7.3 × 104	1.5 × 105
Distribution: 90% purchased ≤ 24 hr	2.0 × 103	4.5 × 104	1.8 × 105	2.4 × 105	2.6 × 105
Time to consume a gallon = 24 hr	1.9 × 103	6.2 × 104	1.5 × 105	1.7 × 105	1.7 × 105
ID50 (adult, child) = 70 μg, 30 μg	1.8 × 10-16	6.7 × 10-3	4.3 × 103	4.2 × 104	1.3 × 105
Median child incubation = 12 hr	6.4 × 102	7.5 × 103	3.4 × 104	5.6 × 104	6.0 × 104
Symptomatics until detection = 10	1.1 × 103	2.0 × 104	8.4 × 104	1.2 × 105	1.2 × 105
Milkborne detection time = 12 hr	1.5 × 103	2.0 × 104	6.9 × 104	9.3 × 104	9.6 × 104

Each change from the base-case value in Table 1 was made in isolation and shown are the mean number of poisoned people computed for five different release sizes.