Table 3. Sensitivity analysis for five parameters in the no-detection case.
Release size
|
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Case description | 0.1 g | 1 g | 10 g | 100 g | 1 kg |
Base case | 2.3 × 103 | 1.5 × 105 | 5.0 × 105 | 5.7 × 105 | 5.7 × 105 |
Time between silo cleanings = 48 hr | 2.8 × 103 | 1.6 × 105 | 3.8 × 105 | 3.9 × 105 | 3.9 × 105 |
Silo size = 100,000 gallons | 2.1 × 102 | 1.4 × 105 | 8.4 × 105 | 1.1 × 106 | 1.1 × 106 |
Silos per processing line = 4 | 4.4 × 101 | 1.1 × 105 | 1.2 × 106 | 2.2 × 106 | 2.2 × 106 |
Inactivation by pasteurization = 0.99 | 6.6 × 10-11 | 5.0 | 3.8 × 104 | 3.6 × 105 | 5.7 × 105 |
ID50 (adult, child) = 70 μg, 30 μg | 1.8 × 10-16 | 6.7 × 10-3 | 7.5 × 103 | 2.1 × 105 | 5.3 × 105 |
Each change from the base-case value in Table 1 was made in isolation, and the mean number of poisoned people was computed for four different release sizes.