Table 2.
Model Input Parameters - Event Probabilities
| Parameter | Value used in the model | Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Stroke-related probabilities | ||
| Recurrent mild stroke | 42% | [60] |
| Recurrent moderate stroke | 26% | [60] |
| Recurrent severe stroke | 10% | [60] |
| Recurrent fatal stroke/death | 22% | [60] |
| Base-case | ||
| Recurrent stroke in 1st year after ePatch | 2.5% | FIND-AF trial7 |
| No stroke in 1st year after ePatch | 97.5% | Calculation based on FIND-AF trial7 |
| Recurrent stroke in 1st year after ILR | 3.3% | PER DIEM trial61 |
| No stroke in 1st year after ILR | 96.7% | Calculation based on PER DIEM trial61 |
| Scenario 1 and 2 | ||
| Recurrent stroke in 1st year after ePatch | 6.4% | MonDAFIS trial62 |
| No stroke in 1st year after ePatch | 93.6% | Calculation based on MonDAFIS trial62 |
| Recurrent stroke in 1st year after ILR | 7.1% | PER DIEM trial16 |
| No stroke in 1st year after ILR | 92.9% | Calculation based on PER DIEM trial16 |
| Infection rate ILR | ||
| Infection rate after ILR | 0.7% | [63] |
| Extrusion rate ILR | ||
| Extrusion rate after ILR | 2.25% | [63] |
| Bleedings | ||
| Major bleeding | 2.02% | [64] |
| CRNM bleed event | 4.18% | [64] |
| Detection rates – Base case | ||
| Detected AF ePatch | 9.0% | FIND-AF7 |
| No AF [ePatch] | 91.0% | Calculation based on FIND-AF RCT7 |
| Detected AF ILR | 10.7% | PER DIEM trial61 |
| No AF [ILR] | 89.3% | Calculation based on PER DIEM trial61 |
| No AF [ILR] - After extrusion | 100.0% | Assumption |
| Scenario 1 | ||
| Detected AF ePatch | 5.8% | MonDAFIS trial62 |
| No AF [ePatch] | 94.2% | Calculation based on MonDAFIS trial62 |
| Detected AF ILR | 8.9% | CRYSTAL AF (6 months)16 |
| No AF [ILR] | 91.1% | Calculation based on CRYSTAL AF (6 months)16 |
| No AF [ILR] - After extrusion | 100.0% | Assumption |
| Scenario 2 | ||
| Detected AF ePatch | 9.8% | AF SPICE65 |
| No AF [ePatch] | 90.2% | Calculation based on AF SPICE65 |
| Detected AF ILR | 10.7% | PER DIEM trial61 |
| No AF [ILR] | 89.3% | Calculation based on PER DIEM trial61 |
| No AF [ILR] - After extrusion | 100.0% | Assumption |
| Drug usage probabilities | ||
| OAC usage post-detection of AF (base case) | 100% | Assumption |
| Aspirin usage (base case) | 100% | Assumption |
Abbreviations: AF = atrial fibrillation; CRNM = clinically relevant non-major; ILR = implantable loop recorder; OAC = oral anticoagulant.